Reference Material/Tutty PhD FoS Parable JAIME

Experimentation of Complex, Adaptive Aerospace Mission Capabilities
- An International Code of Best Practice for T&E & Experimentation –
Spousal Family of Systems Parable
Wing Commander Malcolm G. Tutty MEng, CPEng, FRAeS, FIE(Aust)
UniSA DASI PhD Candidate / HQSRG SO1TC – Air
[email protected] / www.maltutty.com – Use visitor / Maven1
Si ego Certiorem Faciam, Mihi Tu Delendus Eris – the Greek Goddess of Chaos! Homer
The FICS & ‘FOC Effectors’
FICS – Fundamental Inputs to
Capability
FOC Effectors - Fundamental
Outputs of Capability
Driven by OCDs & Conops
Results expected of the Conops ...
SIPOC
Critical Operational/Technical
Issues…
Measures Of Effectiveness
Measures Of Performance
IV&V
•Personnel
•Organisation
•Collective Training
•Major Systems
•Supplies
•Facilities & Training Areas
•Command & Management
•User perspectives at all levels
(Sqn/Wing/Group/HQs) need to
be identified and argued for ...
Rate of Effort
Preparedness – both readiness &
sustainment
Interoperability with other SoS?
Question/Observation: How many
Conops do you have/need, really?
SETE 2011 Tutty
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Technology / Systems
Readiness Levels
1
Basic principle observed and reported.
Studies or initial investigations undertaken.
2
Technology concept and/or application formulated.
Potential applications have been identified.
3
Analytical and experimental critical function and/or characteristic proof of concept.
R&D has been initiated, work towards validating the concept done.
4
Component and/or breadboard validation in lab environment.
The basic elements of the system/ product have been integrated to show they will work.
5
Components and/or breadboard validation in relevant environment.
A higher fidelity validation of the system/ product in a realistic environment.
6
System/sub-system model or prototype demonstration in a relevant and or realistic environment.
7
System prototype demonstration in operational environment. Prototype demonstrated.
‘Productionisation’ can commence.
8
Actual system completed and mission qualified through test and demonstration.
Actual system/ product has been successfully tested/ qualified.
9
Actual system proven through successful mission operations.
Actual system/ product has been successfully fielded.
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Complex Capability Management Model
- Lust to Dust Methodology
CAPABILITY
IDENTIFIED
CAPABILITY
DEFINITION-ACQUISITION
CONOPS / OCD
REQT DEFN
VEHICLE & SYSTEMS SPO(s)
ACQN & SYST ENG
(Acft-Msn Cap – EDP / Sim Survey)
0
2
INTRODUCTION
INTO SERVICE
CAPMGR
ORD MET?
Y/N
EXPERIMENT’N
CAPABILITY MAINTAINED
INTRO
INTO
SERVICE
CONOPS REQT
ACHIEVED &
MAINTAINED
P
W
D
9
10
Follow-on OT&E(s)
1
7
Developmental T&E
3
Qualification T&E
ONGOING IN-SERVICE
Tactics, Techniques & Procedures
EXPERIMENTATION
4
8
Acceptance T&E
5
Initial OT&E
6
LUST WOMB
FISCAL REALITY! CLEARANCE
SETE 2011 Tutty
CERTIFICATION
Unclassified
ADOLESCENCE
MATURITY TOMB DUST
4
Proposed Case Studies
• F-111 – AGM-142 Demo and DMO
win/fail/win
• P-3 MU90 Light Weight Torpedo fail
• P-3 EO/IR SSHD & TCDL win/win
• Classic Hornet - JDAMER fail/win
• Classic JDAM/JDAMER/JSOW wins
• Tiger ARH AGM-114 Hellfire wins
• Joint Fires (JTAC) and Danger Close
impact wins and future criticality
• Develop Spousal FoS Capability
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Spousal Capability – a FoS parable!
•
The power to achieve a desired operational effect in a nominated environment, within a specified time, and to sustain that effect for a designated period.
•
Conops: To see, experience & change the world for the better (world peace / hunger
/ control (Pinky) solved) with a friend and lover until Death (Planned Withdrawal
Date) with at least 2.6 children & with an online availability of daily missions …
FICS – Fundamental Inputs to
Capability
- Driven by Conops, of course!
a.
FOCS - Fundamental Outputs of
Capability
The Conops in User perspective ...
Personnel: sensuous & sultry wife & fun kids,
Scenarios: ok be realistic now
wider families.
SIPOC: ...
b. Organisation: wife & family, decentralised
RoE: key – average loving/sex / daily / weekly /
parents.
monthly / yearly for some SEs?
c. Collective training: marriage, schools, Uni,
entertainment, Swingers Club ??.
Preparedness: readiness & sustainability?
d. Major Systems: Home Ent, Cars, Computer
COI/CTIs: could be interesting to get agreement
Avatar LVC Sim, Guns, power, ...
on these…
e. Supplies: Alcohol, Food Markets, Financial,
MOE: Ops suitability & Effectiveness!, World
contraception ...
Peace or World Hunger solved, kids in Uni/TAFE,
f. Facilities and Training Areas: House, Bar,
Govt stable Pop/social/economic betterment
holiday home/caravan, shooting range.
g. Support: social / financial / ETSA, Gas, water.
MOP: Min 2 kids Max 4... Other Perf measures
h. Command and Management: Comms
IV&V – should be interesting!
essential (so I’m told), others?
Interoperability with other SoS: hmm…
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CAPABILITY
IDENTIFIED
CAPABILITY
DEFINITION - ACQUISITION
INTRODUCTION
INTO SERVICE
CAPABILITY MAINTAINED
OUTCOME
Female – Male configurations that meet
operational suitability, effectiveness and
preparedness criteria!
The Right
‘Capabilities’
To see, experience & change the world for the better
(world peace/hunger/control (Pinky) solved) with a
friend and lover until Death (the Planned Withdrawal Date)
with at least 2.6 children & with an online availability of
daily missions …
Traditionally seen as a System/SoS -> FoS, obviously
LUST WOMB FISCAL REALITIES! CLEARANCE
CERTIFICATION
ADOLESCENCE
TOMB DUST
Spousal Capability – a FoS parable!
2015 GOALS
2030 GOALS
2060 GOALS
2045 GOALS
2075 GOALS
? FoS - to achieve capability others are involved in
the ‘mission’ – messy, complex, real
? Value of / How to experiment early with what you
have – simulation & LVC, -> 2nd Life / avatars
? Note that the Conops has more dimensions…
Wife 1
Wife 2
Wife 3
Girlfriend 1
Girlfriend 2
Affairs!
You
Boyfriend 1
Husband 2
2000
2015
SCOPE/R&D/ORD .1 / .2
YOD
DELIVERY
2030
2045
ACQUISITION - .3 / .4
A / IOT&E
- .5 / .6
FOT&E / IOS .7
IN SERVICE - .8 / .9
2060
LINKS
IOC
2075
Increment / Spiral / P3I
PWD
2100
Spousal Capabilities coming sometime soon…
• Dear Tech Support,
• I have upgraded from Boyfriend 5.0 to Husband 1.9 and I
noticed a distinct slowdown in the overall system
performance, particularly in the flower and jewellery
applications, which operated flawlessly under Boyfriend 5.0.
• Husband 1.9 uninstalled many other valuable programs,
such as Romance 9.5 and Personal Attention 6.5, and then
installed undesirable programs such as NEWS 5.0,
NOMONEY 3.0 and FOOTBAL 4.1, Conversation 8.0 no
longer runs, and Housecleaning 2. 6 simply crashes the
system.
• Please note that I have tried running Nagging 5.3 to fix
these problems, but to no avail.
• What can I do?
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IT Support’s Response
• DEAR Madam,
• First, keep in mind, Boyfriend 5.0 is an Entertainment Package,
while Husband 1.X is an operating system. Please enter command:
ithoughtyoulovedme.Html and try to download Tears 6.2 and do not
forget to install the Guilt 3.0 update. If that application works as
designed, Husband1.X should then automatically run the
applications Jewellery 2.0 and Flowers 3.5.
• However, overuse of the above application can cause Husband
1.0 to default to Silence 2.5 or Beer 6.1. Note that Beer 6.1 is a very
bad program that will download the Snoring Loudly Beta.
• Whatever you do, DO NOT under any circumstances install
Mother-In-Law 1.0 (it runs a virus in the background that will
eventually seize control of all your system resources) and DO NOT
attempt to reinstall the Boyfriend 5.0 program. These are
unsupported applications and will crash Husband 1.9.
• In summary, Husband 1.9 is a great, mature program, but it does
have limited memory and cannot learn new applications quickly. You
might also consider buying additional software to improve memory
and performance. We recommend: Cooking 3.0 and Good Looks
7.7.
SETE 2011 Tutty
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Warning
A Flight Test Armament Engineer is a person who
passes as an expert on the basis of being able to turn out,
with prolific fortitude, indefinite strings of incomprehensible
mathematical figures, calculated with micromatic precision
from vague assumptions which are based on debatable
figures taken from inconclusive data, carried out
through forms of problematic accuracy
by persons of doubtful reliability and questionable mentality
about things designed to kill or negate targets and/or nonallies, for the avowed purpose of annoying and confounding
a hopelessly befuddled group of key personnel and who
may never read the damned reports anyway!
SETE 2011 Tutty
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Complex Adaptive - Cross Capability Engineered Integrated Mission Environment
CAS & Experimentation
3 Levels of Abstraction
-Seeking understanding and adaptability of FoS Emergent properties at Buyers Risk!
V&V & Implications
Complex & adaptive - Family of Systems
Lots of unknowns and unknowables
Mission Level PICs & ‘ilities’ proven (sic)
 “FOS” ‘ilities’ are rare but WITH
“Mission Expectations” -> adaptability?
SOA / OSA predominate – but not common
Continuous measurement of MS MOE/MOP
Complex Acquisitions of FOS
Synchronisation
Proven Config/Role/Environment
(CRE) for EACH SoS in the FoS
“Rub Points” & hence all
‘Key Interfaces’ are identified
QA
Structured Expirmentation/T&E of
Systems for Joint End-Effects
Exp/T&E of SoS boundaries Sellers Risk
Exp/T&E with FoS continuously
- Buyers Risk
PICS Critical
Complicated - Bounded ‘Systems Engineered’ Capabilities
- Pick and maintain a model with agreed standards to measure and control system, or any SoS emergent properties, at Sellers Risk
Complicated Systems of Systems
Few unknowns unknowns
Bounded ‘Things’ with controlled connectivity
Engagement ‘ilities’ & PICs specified & known
but no “prescriptive” Mission Level MOE / MOP
Users need Training / TTPs developed on the
new and/or unique Tools
Typical Complicated Acquisitions
Minimal coordination
Config/Role/Environment (CRE)
‘Isolated’ with few connections
Sub-systems can be simply acquired
V&V & Implications
QA
Structured Exp/T&E to verify agreed ‘ilities’,
Training & TTPs
SoS – essentially Sellers Risk
PICS Important
Simple - ‘Traditional’ Engineered Systems
- Mature COTS & MOTS ‘Heaven / Nirvana’ at Buyers Risk
Straightforward ‘Simple’ Standalone Systems
No Unknowns and No Unknowables!
We’re buying something ‘other’ s working system
A Collection of Managed Things
(ie. 5 apples & 3 bananas)
No ilities needed
No dedicated training needed (ie known by Users)
‘Metaphysics rules’ & all characteristics ‘thought to
Simple Acquisitions
Rare coordination
V&V & Implications
QA checks ’things’ from Contractor
CIOG & DSG space critical in Aust
Buyer must be aware of any/all cross
dependencies with COTS/MOTS support and
updates
What are PICS?
Systems – essentially Buyers Risk
Buy each ‘thing’ OTS
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JAIME CODEx ‘Tests’
TABLE 1. JAIME CODEx FRAMEWORK / TAXONOMY Draft v 0.7
Sphere of Influence of Actor / Problems with compatibility are usually all about the interface(s) / / CoBP has to be evidence based and have a ‘whole of life’, learning view...
4D: Veh, Sensor, C2, Shooter, EW, Ranges ... Time ->
Scientific / Engineering /
Technical Discipline
Physical –
Form and Fit
Lab / Virtual &
Constructive
M&S Analysis – 0.-.-
Live
System
Gnd Test
- 1.-.-
Live
System
Flt Test
- 2.-.-
Live
In-service
Exercise,
Trng, R&M
3.-.-
Fit of ‘Form’
-.-.1
011
110 (PreProd)
111
(101)
211
flexible struct on acft
and store?
311
Loads
-.-.1
021
120(141)
121(131)
220(252) *
221 (200)
321
122
(152)
123
(152)
124
(154)
125
(153)
126
(155)
222
(221)
223
(222)
225
224 EW
226
(223)
127
227
327
130 (143)
131(142)
132
(120)
232
(210)
331
332
333
Sub-Discipline
-.1.-
Physical –
‘Victim’ – Safety
Structural & Environment
-.2.-
Physical ‘Victim’ – Safety
Aerodynamics,
Aeroelasticity, Captive
Carriage, Flying /Handling
Qualities & Aircraft
Performance
-.3.-
Physical ‘Victim’ – Safety
Employment & Jettison
-.4.-
SETE 2011 Tutty
Vibrations
-.-.2
Aero-acoustic
-.-.3
EMC / EMI
-.-.4
HERO
-.-.5
Temperature
-.-.6
Noise (Aeroacoustics)
-.-.7
Aeroelasticity
-.-.1
Take-Off, Handling
Qualities,(+ W&B) &
Landing (+Carrier)
-.-.2
Perf’ and Drag
-.-.3
Endurance
-.-.4
Separation
-.-.1
Dispense
-.-.2
Gun Firing
-.-.3
Launch
-.-.4
Jettison
-.-.5
022
023
024
025
026
027
031
224
032 W&B
(132) W&B
230
(251) *
231 (230 & 260)
033
133
(142 Update)
233
(240)
?
?
234 vs 200 (253) *
140 (144) 141 (110)
F’stream & Sep Coeff?
142
(162)
143
(161)
144
(144)
145
(144)
241 (271)
(291 or 293?)
242
(272)
243
(273)
244
(274)
245
(280)
032
041
042
043
044
Unclassified
045
322
323
324
325
326
341
342
343
344
345
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JAIME CODEx ‘Tests’
Information-
Function – Comms –
C2 IntraNetworks
-.-.1
051 (Lab ?)
151 (Acft)
251
351
052
152
(102)
DT EW / EMC ?
352
153
DT 255
(292)
OT 255 +
(294)
Function – Sensor
Function, States, Modes of
System
Op/Delivery, Vehicle Level /
-.-.2
Role/Ballistics & OFP
Function- Shooter Role
Validation & Verification
– In-range envelope
Note needs to cover sensor,
V&V
C2 and shooter...
-.-.3
‘Source’ Mission Critical Rx
& Tx ranges – 2D / 3D at
Function – DE ???
various security levels
Other Mission ???
-.5.This is where most
Range ??
MOE/MOPs should come
into play
Ball 053
2PGM
353
OT
0PGMs
1PGM
3PGM
054
154
Y
Y
OT Y
-1
061
161
261
361
FTS ??
RCS / Noise
Signatures
-32
0632
1632
2632
3632
Cognitive –
-33
0633
1633
N/A
-
System Level
Procedures V&V and
Human Factors
-.6.-
-34 / Tacman
0634
1634
2634
3634
Msn Planning
Tools
06MPS ?
16MPS ?
DT & OT 256 ?
36
EBO Tools
06 EBO?
16EBO?
Operator –
1472 & NEO HF
?
?
?
?
SOS -605th
SOS – 605th
SOS – 605th
?
FOS?
FOS?
FOS ?
?
Social –
ie pure SoS / focused on
FoS & especially C2
-.7.-
SETE 2011 Tutty
Mission
TBMCS ...
...
....
....
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