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Konovalova A.Y.
Assistant of department in Krasnoyarsk state agrarian university
Krasnoyarsk city, Russia
USE OF METHODOLOGY OF FORECASTING THE BUSINESS
ACTIVITY RESULTS OF CORPORATE AMALGAMATION
Modern market conditions even more often make businesspersons to do
their business jointly with science, using its achievements in the field of forecasts,
calculations of efficiency and planning. In turn, the science should develop more
and more new tools and their combinations for better analysis not only
environment of business, but also its internal indicators. At the present, there are
enough various methods and models for calculation of any indicator you may
need.
First stage of any forecast has to answer the questions concerning
company’s activity. For example: «What products (goods) or services and in what
volume are produced?», «Whether innovative approaches to create demand and
sales promotion of goods or services are applied or not?», «What are the features
of the existing system of management?», «What is the market share and a place
of a company in branch?», «What is the level of competitiveness on market?»,
«What type of strategy does the company use?» and «What is the expenses
structure?»
While estimating features of the existing system of management, the
strategy that is used, the sizes, production, expenses structure, it is possible to
determine the critical parameters significantly influencing company’s activity in
the future. These parameters will be those main assumptions, which will form the
basis of the forecast of company’s development.
It is useful to begin with data based on the past. Calculation of previous
sales volume and other components of the reporting will provide with useful
information for carrying out future forecast. However, the knowledge of the past
doesn't mean knowledge of the future. The selected characteristics have to be
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estimated at a forecasting stage. For example, if sales level of the company is
inseparably linked with the economy of the region, it is necessary to make the
economy development forecast in general. So, if financial forecasting is based on
assumptions, it is necessary to find several alternatives. Only after that it is
possible to rely on the forecast, but carefully.
There may not be any perfect and exact forecast of the company’s
development, but the set of all possible options of development will be defined.
The main methods of forecasting are as follows:
− the methods of statistics, (such as the average weighed and finding the
trend of a dollar rate) and dynamic methods;
− the method of expert evaluations (Method «Delfi», ABC - analysis,
XYZ method);
− the modeling methods (SPSS, Statistica, Forecast Expert, Excel).
The choice of these methods of forecast is explained by that they are wellknown, are used in practice during long period of time and give smaller percent
of an error – 10-15%.
Let’s consider each of the methods in more detail.
The methods of statistics. One of the most widespread statistic features is
the average weighed. In calculating the average weighed, the weight that allow to
receive the summarizing indicator in numerator of a formula are used. In a
denominator of a formula the sum of scales is used. In some calculations, the
weight can artificially be added to an indicator. For example, when various cars
in several parameters are tested (safety, comfort, profitability, etc.). To compare
various cars among them it is necessary to receive the average estimate. But
different parameters are of different importance. The comfort and safety can be
more important than fuel consumption. In this case each of the parameters is
appropriated some weight in order to get more important parameter and less
important parameter that influence the general assessment in different extent.
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Dynamic methods. One of such methods is «The situational centers» - a
kind of information systems of decision-making support. A main component of
this method is a means of dynamic modeling which allows to find out possible
consequences of different events and answer the question: «What will be, if…?».
The forecasting allows to receive the scenario of development on the basis of the
analysis of the current situation, and also to define possible consequences: «What
will be if I do that…?» or «What will be if there is such event…?» [1]. Such
modeling needs an availability of a licensed program at the company, and it may
cost a lot.
The method of expert evaluations. ABC – analysis is a method that allows
to classify resources of firm according to degree of their importance. In the base
of this method is the Pareto principle, it means that 20% of all goods give 80% of
profit. ABC analysis — the analysis of commodity reserves by dividing them into
three categories:
A — the most valuable, 20% — assortment; 80% — sales
B — intermediate, 30% — assortment; 15% — sales
C — the least valuable, 50% — assortment; 5% — sales
Depending on the purposes of the analysis any number of groups can be
allocated. Most often allocate 3, and 4-5 groups are more rare. The ABC analysis
means ranging of an assortment according to different parameters. The analysis is
based on the principle of an imbalance. Such method allows visually, and, in
numerical indicators to trace overall performance of both separate types of goods
and services, and company in general [2].
XYZ method allows to make classification of the company resources
depending on nature of their consumption and accuracy of forecasting of changes
in their requirement during a certain cycle. The algorithm can be presented in four
stages:
1) Determination of variation coefficients for the analyzed resources.
2) Grouping of resources according to increase of variation coefficient.
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3) Distribution according to the categories X, Y and Z.
4) Graphical representation of the results of the analysis [3].
As a result of using such method of forecasting the real value of variation
coefficient for different groups can differ because of such factors as seasonality
of sales, a trend, deficiency, etc.
Therefore the XYZ method is often carried out together with ABC analysis
that allows to allocate groups more exactly, according to their features [4].
Another method of expert evaluations is method «Delfi». It was developed
in 1950 — 1960 in the USA for forecasting of future developments in science and
their influence on methods of war (Olaf Helmer, Norman Dalkey, and Nicholas
Rescher are considered as authors of this method). An essence of this method in
using of a series of consecutive actions – polls, interview, brain storms – to
achieve the maximum consensus when making the correct decision. The analysis
by the method «Delfi» is carried out in several stages, and the results are processed
by statistical methods
Subjects of this method are as follows: groups of researchers, each of which
answers individually in writing; the organizational group — brings opinions of
experts together.
Stages: The preliminary; The main; The analytical. [5]
On the one hand, such method is one of the most objective of expert because
the decision is made by the large number of the experts who are in different areas,
different cities, different countries and they can't affect each other’s opinions. But
on the other hand complexity and duration of this method requires an availability
of a certain time minimum. Moreover, in such conditions of hard competition the
decision-maker doesn’t have enough time for making a decision.
Key Performance Indicators (KPI) — indicators of the company’s divisions
activity which help in achievement of strategic and tactical targets, and also allow
to evaluate company’s condition [6].
The KPI are not the KSF (Key Success Factors). The KSF are the elements
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of increase of company’s cost and value. KPI just use these elements for the
further analysis of their efficiency. The correct determination of KPI can be found
in the ISO 9000:2008 standard [7]. There the word «performance» divides into
two terms: productivity and efficiency. According to the standard, productivity —
is extent of the planned results achievement (ability of the company to orient on
the result), and efficiency — a ratio between the reached results and the spent
resources (ability of the company to realization the purposes and plans).
The founder of evaluation system of results achievement is Peter Druker
(Peter Ferdinand Drucker (1909 — 2005)). According to Druker, chiefs have to
avoid «time traps» when they are involved in current daily tasks solution process
because it may lead to that they start forgetting to carry out the tasks directed on
the results achievement.
Key Performance Indicators can be divided into the following:
 Late — show the activity results after the period of time.
 Outstripping — give the opportunity to manage situation within the
reporting period for the purpose of achievement of the defined results after
expiration.
Considering principles of using KPI it’s necessary to pay attention on
different points of view. For example, Kaplan and Norton’s in their work
recommend to use no more than 20 KPI. Hope and Fraser suggest to use no more
than 10. For divisions Panov recommends to use no more than 10-15 KPI,
otherwise managers will be busy with planning. The best recommendation from
the existing is the rule «10/80/10». It means that the company has to have about
10 key indicators of productivity, about 80 industrial indicators and 10 key
indicators of efficiency [8].
The modeling methods. For forecasting of a time row they use the computer
programs. It allows to automate the most part of operations in creation of the
forecast, and also allows to avoid the mistakes connected with data input. Such
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program applications can be used locally (on one computer only), and Internetapplications (for example, available in the form of the website). Among the most
popular local applications it is necessary to mark such programs as SPSS,
Statistica, Forecast Expert. And to forecast the match results it’s recommended to
use the SportStatic ([9], [10]).
References:
1. Коновалов
А.А.
Совершенствование
методики
анализа
финансовых потоков промышленного предприятия. Журнал: Финансы и
кредит. Москва, - 2009. – №39.
2. Лукинский В.С. Модели и методы теории логистики [Текст]:
Учебное пособие. 2-е изд. / В.С. Лукинский. - СПб.: Питер, 2007. - 448с.
3. Бодряков Р.А. АВС- и XYZ – анализ: составление и анализ
итоговой матрицы [Текст] / Р.А. Бодряков//Логистика и управление. – 2007.
- №2. -с.38-42
4. Сергеев В.И. Логистика в бизнесе [Текст]. Учебник для вузов / В.И.
Сергеев. - М.: ИНФРА-М, 2001. - 608с.
5. Мескон М.Х., Альберт М., Хедоури Ф. Основы менеджмента. Пер.
с англ. М.: Дело,1992.
6. Клочков А.К. KPI и мотивация персонала. Полный сборник
практических инструментов. — Эксмо, 2010. — 160с.
7. ГОСТ Р ИСО 9001-2008, введён в действие с 13 ноября 2009 г.
8. Панов М.М. Оценка деятельности и система управления
компанией на основе KPI. —М.: Инфра-М, 2013. — 255с.
9. Пушкарев Ю.И. Реинжиниринг бизнес-процессов [Текст] / Ю.И.
Пушкарев. - М.: Экспертиза Бизнеса и Финансов, 2012. – 256с.
10. Федорцов Л.С. Общий курс логистики [Текст]: учебное пособие/
Л.С Федоров, М.В. Кравченко. - М.: КНОРУС, 2010. - 224с.
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