Oil and gas weekly

APRIL 3, 2015
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
Topic of the week
Alexander Nazarov
+7 (495) 980 43 81
[email protected]
Update of Russian O&G 2015 capex forecasts
In this issue of Oil and Gas Weekly, we update our capex forecasts for Russian oil and
gas companies in 2015.
Ekaterina Zinovyeva
+7 (495) 983 18 00 (ext. 5 4442)
[email protected]
The main changes to our forecasts stem from ruble devaluation against the dollar. We
estimate that total Russian O&G capex in 2015 will decrease 31% YoY in dollar terms to
$48.2 bln. At the same time, in ruble terms we expect a marginal increase, by 3% YoY to
RUB 2.75 trln.
Konstantin Asaturov
+7 (495) 983 18 00 (ext. 5 4584)
[email protected]
Otherwise, we see every indication that Russian oil and gas companies are delaying or
reconsidering projects with heavy capex. In any event, we expect 2015-16 to see more
moderate capex compared with 2013-14, with companies waiting for a higher oil price
that would allow them to earn a required return on investment. This seems logical, as
companies will mobilize cash in light of restricted access to financial markets.
Moreover, this could help support FCF generation, which may have a favorable impact
on both leverage and credit quality, as well as dividend payments.
Contents:
Trading ideas summary ................. 2
Topic of the week .......................... 3
The week in review ....................... 6
International markets..................... 10
Week ahead
Equity valuation............................. 13
Fixed Income valuation ................. 15
EDC will report 2014 US GAAP results next week (April 9).
Dividend yields vs. senior bonds ... 25
Ideas for this week
Calendar of events ........................ 26
Equity. We would keep positions in NOVATEK shares.
Companies mentioned
Debt. Russian eurobonds were pulled up WoW against the backdrop of ongoing local
bids for the RUSSIA30, and the O&G sector was one of the greatest beneficiaries of this
move. Current premiums in the segment look significantly squeezed relative to recently
seen levels. However, for those investors interested in Russian O&G risk, there are still
some RV opportunities at the long end (see trade ideas).
Tatneft
Gazprom
Surgutneftegas
Gazprom Neft
Rosneft
Charts of the week
Russian O&G majors capex, 2013-15, $ mln
EM O&G debt-relative valuation, as of April 3
100,000
900
90,000
800
80,000
70,000
700
89,732
NVTKRM 22
48,231
GAZPRU 4.95
KZOKZ 21
22
SOIAZ 23
400
30,000
LUKOIL 22
300
20,000
10,000
200
0
100
PETBRA 5.375
21
ROSNRM 22
SIBNEF 22
500
50,000
40,000
SIBUR 18
600
69,387
60,000
Z-SPREAD,
BPS
EDCLLI 20
PEMEX 4.875
22
NET DEBT/ LTM EBITDA IN USD TERMS
2013
2014
2015E
0.0
Source: companies, Gazprombank estimates
Research Department
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Source: Bloomberg, Gazprombank estimates
1
Copyright © 2003-2015
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
APRIL 3, 2015
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
WEEKLY TRADING IDEAS SUMMARY
Equity
COMPANY
TICKER
CURRENT PRICE
IDEA
NOVATEK
NVTK LI
$83.8
We would keep positions in NOVATEK shares. Following the
publication of our trade idea, the company’s GDRs gained 14% last
week vs. the 8% rise of the RIOB Index..
Fixed Income
IDEAS
The NVTKRM 21 (YTM 7.57%, Z-spread 598 bps) and NVTKRM 22 (YTM 7.61%, Z-spread 580 bps) added another 1.8 pps and 2.3 pps, respectively,
over the week. However, the issues are still trading with relatively wide premiums to other quality O&G names. For example, the NVTKRM21GAZPRU21 premium stands at 90 bps vs. the 50 bps LTM average, while the NVTKRM 22 is still yielding more than the SIBNEF 22 and ROSNRM 22.
The SIBNEF 22 (YTM 7.38%, Z-spread 560 bps) and SIBNEF 23 (YTM 7.76%, Z-spread 590 bps) continue to lag the appreciation of GAZPRU paper:
current premiums over the parent curve (namely the GAZPRU 22) stand at 100 bps and 135 bps, respectively. This is still unsustainable, in our view.
The SIBUR18 (YTM 7.28%, Z-spread 625 bps) does not look particularly cheap at the moment, as its spreads to O&G (LUKOIL18, GAZPRU18) and
other second-tier papers with similar duration (PHORRU18, NLMKRU18) have narrowed significantly and are currently at or below 12M average level s.
Nevertheless, at current levels the bond is still an attractive risk/return proposition.
The TMENRU curve lagged the overall market this week, gaining only 0.7-1.0 pps in price. The TMENRU 20 (YTM 7.86%, Z-spread 642 bps) still shows one of
the highest premiums among 5Y quality issues, offering 170 bps over GAZPRU vs. the 100 bps LTM average.
Research Department
2
Copyright © 2003-2015
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
APRIL 3, 2015
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
TOPIC OF THE WEEK
Russian O&G 2015 capex forecast update
In this issue of Oil and Gas Weekly, we update our capex forecasts for Russian oil and
gas companies in 2015.
Main focus unchanged: support of brownfields
The main changes to our forecasts stem from ruble devaluation against the dollar. We
estimate that total Russian O&G capex in 2015 will decrease 31% YoY in dollar terms to
$48.2 bln. At the same time, in ruble terms we expect a marginal increase, by 3% YoY to
RUB 2.75 trln.
Otherwise, we see every indication that Russian oil and gas companies are delaying or
reconsidering projects with heavy capex. In any event, we expect 2015-16 to see more
moderate capex compared with 2013-14, with companies waiting for a higher oil price that
would allow them to earn a required return on investment. This seems logical, as
companies will mobilize cash in light of restricted access to financial markets. Moreover,
this could help support FCF generation, which may have a favorable impact on both debt
positions and credit quality, as well as dividend payments.
We expect the oil price to recover from current levels and return to above $70/bbl in
2H15, which would provide support to the ruble exchange rate. We assume an average
Brent price of $60/bbl in 2015 and a RUB/USD rate of 57.
Note that Gazprom’s capex program includes Gazprom Neft’s numbers, although we
show the latter separately as part of affiliates’ capex. Capex by other companies is shown
and estimated as reported. NOVATEK’s capex does not include Yamal-LNG.
Capex by major Russian oil and gas companies, 2013-15E
2013
2014
2015E
2013
2014
2015E
CHANGE 2015/14, %
1,475,169
1,150,000
1,228,333
Gazprom
46,316
29,932
21,550
-28.0%
Upstream
583,780
540,000
503,333
Upstream
18,329
14,055
8,830
-37.2%
Downstream
676,987
610,000
625,000
Downstream
21,255
15,877
10,965
-30.9%
NOVATEK*
59,254
63,614
50,000
NOVATEK*
1,860
1,656
877
-47.0%
Upstream
44,261
62,184
49,000
Upstream
1,390
1,619
860
-46.9%
Downstream
14,993
1,430
1,000
Downstream
471
37
18
-52.9%
Rosneft
560,000
568,800
583,200
Rosneft
17,582
14,805
10,232
-30.9%
Upstream
343,000
378,000
420,000
Upstream
10,769
9,839
7,368
-25.1%
Downstream
203,000
172,000
163,200
Downstream
6,374
4,477
2,863
-36.0%
Lukoil
491,573
591,322
600,000
Lukoil
15,434
15,391
10,526
-31.6%
Upstream
376,085
456,506
490,000
Upstream
11,808
11,882
8,596
-27.7%
Downstream
86,473
134,816
110,000
Downstream
2,715
3,509
1,930
-45.0%
Gazprom Neft
196,754
330,830
340,000
Gazprom Neft
6,178
8,611
5,965
-30.7%
Upstream
132,178
254,758
265,000
Upstream
4,150
6,631
4,649
-29.9%
Downstream
44,787
76,072
75,000
Downstream
1,406
1,980
1,316
-33.5%
Surgutneftegas*
184,700
181,200
184,500
Surgutneftegas
5,799
4,716
3,237
-31.4%
Upstream
172,600
169,500
171,500
Upstream
5,419
4,412
3,009
-31.8%
Downstream
12,100
11,700
13,000
Downstream
380
305
228
-25.1%
Tatneft
56,827
62,574
66,000
Tatneft
1,784
1,629
1,158
-28.9%
Gazprom *
Research Department
3
Copyright © 2003-2015
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
APRIL 3, 2015
2013
2014
2015E
Upstream
27,447
25,175
28,000
Downstream
29,380
37,399
Bashneft
30,441
Upstream
Downstream
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
2013
2014
2015E
CHANGE 2015/14, %
Upstream
862
655
491
-25.0%
38,000
Downstream
922
973
667
-31.5%
48,344
37,125
Bashneft
956
1,258
651
-48.2%
15,144
36,220
29,625
Upstream
475
943
520
-44.9%
13,582
12,124
7,500
Downstream
426
316
132
-58.3%
* Gazprom and Surgutneftegas 2014 capex estimated, full 2014 accounts due in April, Gazprom includes Gazprom Neft capex
Source: company data, Gazprombank estimates
Russian oil and gas upstream capex, 2013-15, $ mln
60,000
Russian oil and gas downstream capex, 2013-15, $ mln
40,000
$53 bln
$50 bln
35,000
50,000
$34 bln
$27 bln
30,000
40,000
$34 bln
25,000
30,000
$18 bln
20,000
15,000
20,000
10,000
10,000
5,000
-
2013
BASHNEFT
GAZPROM NEFT
NOVATEK*
2014
TATNEFT
LUKOIL
GAZPROM
2015E
2013
SURGUTNEFTEGAS
ROSNEFT
BASHNEFT
GAZPROM NEFT
NOVATEK*
TATNEFT
LUKOIL
GAZPROM
Source: companies, Gazprombank estimates
SURGUTNEFTEGAS
ROSNEFT
Russian oil and gas total capex, 2013-15, RUB bln
100,000
3,500,000
90,000
3,000,000
80,000
RUB 3.1 trln
RUB 3 trln
RUB 3.1 trln
2,500,000
89,732
2,000,000
69,387
60,000
2015E
Source: companies, Gazprombank estimates
Russian oil and gas total capex, 2013-15, $ mln
70,000
2014
1,500,000
50,000
40,000
1,000,000
48,231
500,000
30,000
-
20,000
2013
10,000
BASHNEFT
GAZPROM NEFT
NOVATEK*
0
2013
2014
2015E
Source: companies, Gazprombank estimates
2014
TATNEFT
LUKOIL
GAZPROM
2015E
SURGUTNEFTEGAS
ROSNEFT
Source: companies, Gazprombank estimates
Most likely changes: Gazprom, Tatneft and Lukoil
Where are there any possible risks to our forecast? Of course, the oil price and
RUB/USD rate are the main drivers for Russian oil and gas companies’ capex. At the
same time, we note that 2015 capex budgets are generally approved, while one quarter
of the year has already passed. As a result, we can expect some significant changes in
capex only in 4Q15. For example, Gazprom traditionally reconsiders its capex program
in September.
Research Department
4
Copyright © 2003-2015
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
APRIL 3, 2015
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
It is worth mentioning that we see more downside risk to capex than upside. Even if the
oil price rebounds by 4Q15, this will likely be reflected in oil majors’ spending only in
2016, in our view. At the same time, any downside reaction in case of a potential (albeit
unlikely, in our view) decrease in the oil price could be immediate.
As mentioned above, Gazprom during its September reconsideration of capex will likely
react to EU gas exports in 2Q-3Q. To recap, we anticipate a strong rebound in gas
exports to the EU starting in 2Q on the back of the decrease in gas prices, which may
allow Gazprom to change its investment program. We also remind that in May or July
the new gas contract with China on the western route could be signed, which may
trigger an increase in capex as soon as 2015.
During its 2014 results conference call, Tatneft mentioned that it may spend RUB 75 bln
in 2015, including some RUB 25 bln on high-viscous (or so-called bitumen) oil. At the
same time, the oil price is exerting some pressure on the bitumen project, so we
conservatively project just RUB 66 bln in capex for Tatneft in 2015. Also, the company
may start the second stage of its TANECO project, with the total cost of the project
assessed at RUB 150 bln and expected to be completed in 3-4 years, implying some
RUB 40 bln in additional spending. At the same time, we expect the second stage of
construction to start in 2016.
Finally, Lukoil, while not an obvious potential source of growth in capex, depends on
political decisions. The first decision to be made by the Russian government regards
private companies’ access to offshore, which is now limited to state-owned companies.
Lukoil has been lobbying for access to offshore and, should it meet with success, may
require additional spending in Russia. That said, the likelihood that such spending
would be implemented as soon as 2015 is low. The second decision involves Iraq.
Media reported that the country is now in talks with all oil companies working in the
country, including Lukoil, on the scale and parameters of projects. This may potentially
also require some lifting of capex. At the same time, we note that Lukoil is now at the
end of its downstream investment cycle, which may allow the company to spend some
additional money on upstream.
Research Department
5
Copyright © 2003-2015
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
APRIL 3, 2015
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
WEEK IN REVIEW
Oil news
Oil prices were volatile in response to news from Switzerland, where the Iranian nuclear
program and a possible lifting of sanctions were discussed. Quotes collapsed on
Thursday night, when a preliminary agreement was reached. The May Brent contract is
down 3.5% WoW at $53.9/bbl.
KEY CORPORATE NEWS
Rosneft settles disputes with Yukos. Moderately positive
News: Rosneft and its subsidiaries signed an agreement to settle disputes with
companies within Yukos Group. Pursuant to the terms of the agreement, the parties are
abandoning reciprocal claims as well as discontinuing all existing legal and other
disputes, while agreeing not to pursue any claims going forward in accordance with the
bankruptcy and liquidation of oil company Yukos.
The agreement specifies no payments in cash or otherwise on the part of Rosneft or its
subsidiaries.
TICKER
ROSN RX
Target price
RUB 311.7
Closing price
RUB 262.6
Recommendation
NEUTRAL
Upside
19%
Ratings
BB+/Ba1/ -
Source: Bloomberg, Gazprombank estimates
Effect on the company: In its FY14 financial report, Rosneft disclosed several claims
from Yukos totaling around RUB 53 bln less interest, RUB 13 bln of which has been
paid. That said, no sizable provisions, according to the report, have been accrued for
these lawsuits, and therefore one should not expect any unlocking of provisions or an
increase of net income in 2015. Liabilities – promissory notes to Yukos companies
totaling RUB 20 bln – are listed on Rosneft’s balance sheet. It remains unclear whether
these notes have been included in the aforementioned agreement. To recap, even if
unlocked, these funds may comprise less than 6% of Rosneft’s FY14 net income.
We note that the settlement does not apply to Yukos’ claims against Russia.
Effect on shares: The settlement of these disputes is unlikely to lead to any material
changes in the company’s financials or valuation. That said, reduced exposure to legal
claims is clearly positive for Rosneft.
Rosneft wants to increase crude export volumes to China
News: Rosneft is seeking opportunities to increase crude export volumes to China
through the Skovorodino-Mokhe pipeline and Kazakhstan, according to Kommersant.
Effect on the company: Kozmino has limited capacities to expand this year.
Transneft is currently in the process of upgrading Kozmino’s annual capacity from a
current 30 mln tonnes to 36 mln tonnes, but construction is due to be completed only
in 2017. Meanwhile, Rosneft needs to deliver an additional 5 mln tonnes of crude to
China this year.
At the same time, Russia’s Energy Ministry is considering Rosneft’s request to increase
its quota in ESPO. The pipeline brings about a 3-5% premium to Urals, which may
translate into an additional $100 mln in EBITDA for Rosneft in case of success.
Tatneft releases neutral FY14 IFRS results
TICKER
ATAD LI
News: Tatneft reported FY14 IFRS results. Revenues in 4Q14 dropped 18% QoQ to
RUB 105 bln, while EBITDA contracted 56% QoQ to RUB 14.8 bln. Net income declined
15% QoQ to RUB 18.6 bln.
Target price
$ 32.1
Closing price
$ 32.4
Recommendation
NEUTRAL
Effect on the company: The results were well below our expectations in terms of
EBITDA margin, as the quarterly dynamic (-56%) was the worst among the oil
companies that have already reported. The underlying reason was faster growth in costs
Upside
-1%
Ratings
-/Ba1/BBB-
Research Department
6
Source: Bloomberg, Gazprombank estimates
Copyright © 2003-2015
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
APRIL 3, 2015
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
than revenues. Operating expenses rose 9% QoQ (vs. an 18% decline in revenues),
while SG&A surged 15% QoQ.
Net income was positively impacted by FX revaluation of Tatneft’s cash position: as is
the case with Surgutneftegas, the company shows negative net debt. As a result and
amid ruble devaluation in 4Q14, this allowed the company to accrue RUB 14 bln as FX
profit. This was the reason behind the positive surprise on the net income side, even
though EBITDA failed to meet expectations.
In addition, the company continued to generate strong free cash flow, totaling RUB 10 bln
in 4Q14. And though this figure is below average, Tatneft generated an average of about
RUB 21 bln per quarter during the first three quarters. This trend clearly shows that Tatneft
remains one of the sector’s strongest FCF generators even during tough quarters.
The company’s disappointing margins were offset by a positive surprise on the net
income line and good FCF generation.
Tatneft 4Q14 IFRS results, RUB mln
4Q14
3Q14
4Q13
QOQ
YOY
4Q14C
4Q14E
104,545
126,953
120,344
-18%
-13%
119,050
118,758
EBITDA
14,764
33,620
30,784
-56%
-52%
23,770
22,890
EBITDA margin
14.1%
26.5%
25.6%
20.0%
19.3%
Net income
18,643
22,019
15,691
15,530
15,687
Net margin
17.8%
17.3%
13.0%
13.0%
13.2%
Revenues
-15%
19%
C – Interfax consensus estimates
Source: company data, Gazprombank estimates
Gazprom, Tatneft and Surgutneftegas report RAS results
News: Gazprom released RAS results for 2014. To recap, pursuant to its current
dividend policy, Gazprom pays out dividends based on RAS net income. The company’s
net income in 2014 shrank 3.3-fold to RUB 189 bln.
Tatneft reported its RAS net profit up 24% YoY.
Surgutneftegas also reported RAS results for 2014. As usual, we focused on net income,
as it provides a solid base for estimating dividends.
Effect on the companies: On Gazprom, one should not conclude that dividends
contracted by the same amount. The other expense item of the report includes FX
losses on liabilities denominated in foreign currency. Moreover, the RAS report reflects
provisions for accounts receivable. It remains unclear whether Gazprom will adjust net
income for these one-offs for dividend payout purposes.
To remind, the MinFin in its latest amendments to the 2015 state budget suggested
adjusting Gazprom’s RAS net income for FX differences in the amount of RUB 5.15
per share.
The balance of Gazprom’s other income and losses stands at minus RUB 989 bln. After
adjusting the company’s financial results for these losses, as well as the assumed
amount of unpaid income tax, we estimate that net income less other expenses could
reach around RUB 820 bln, i.e. even showing growth in YoY terms. Under this best case
scenario, net income-based dividends could be in excess of RUB 10 per share.
That said, under our base case scenario we still adhere to the MinFin’s scenario of
projected budget revenues at RUB 5.15 per share.
On Tatneft, the company’s dividends might rise by 24% to RUB 10.58 per share, or
slightly below our expectation of RUB 11 per share, yielding 3.8% and 6.5% on
commons and prefs, respectively.
Research Department
7
Copyright © 2003-2015
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
APRIL 3, 2015
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
On Surgutneftegas, based on same payout ratio assumption, dividends for prefs could
be RUB 8.20 per share, yielding a nice 19% based on the current share price.
Nizhnekamskneftekhim reports decent 2014 IFRS results
TICKER
NKNC RX
News: Nizhnekamskneftekhim (NKNC) released decent IFRS results for 2014. The
company’s top line rose 9% to RUB 137 bln, while EBITDA increased 22.5% YoY to
RUB 16.2 bln. Net income grew 51% YoY to RUB 9.4 bln.
Target price
u/r
Closing price
RUB 27.35
Recommendation
u/r
Effect on the company: The improvement in margins was mainly attributable to the
plastics production segment as the company launched new polystyrene manufacturing
facilities, boosting revenues from plastics production by 24% YoY. Currently, revenues
from plastics production (RUB 45 bln) are slightly lagging behind the figure for rubbers
(RUB 52 bln) in the revenue mix. The latter, on the contrary, dropped 3% YoY due to the
ongoing decline in rubber prices. To recap, we already noticed a similar trend in the
financials of Russia’s other major rubber producer, SIBUR.
Upside
n/a
Ratings
BB-/Ba3/-
Source: Bloomberg, Gazprombank estimates
We also note fairly strong cost control, as SG&A fell 10% YoY, while the key costs line –
raw material expenses – rose 10%, despite the faster increase in prices of naphtha –
one of NKNC’s key raw materials.
Notably, this set of numbers is unlikely to act as a share price catalyst, since dividends
(announced recently) are based on RAS results. That said, the report confirms a peculiar
trend: petrochemicals are becoming more profitable amid falling oil prices. Given a
possible recovery in rubber pricing, NKNC may start to look like an attractive investment
target again.
NKNC is scheduled to hold a meeting with analysts and investors in Moscow on April 6.
Moody’s confirms SIBUR’s Ва1 rating, assigns negative outlook. The
SIBUR18 still looks attractive.
TICKER
SIBUR
Target price
-
News: Moody's confirmed SIBUR’s Ba1 rating and assigned it with a negative outlook.
Closing price
-
Recommendation
-
Upside
-
Ratings
-/Ba1/BB+
In its press release, the agency noted that SIBUR’s business model is resilient to the
current weakening of Russia’s economic and financial environment. The rating agency
also said it expects SIBUR to reduce its leverage over the next 18M to around 2.0х
debt/EBITDA (including Moody's adjustments) from 4.2х seen in late 2014. We note that
the agency includes in SIBUR’s debt its obligations to Rosneft related to the purchase of
a financial asset last year (Yugragaspererabotka worth $1 bln, of which $0.5 bln was
paid in January, with the remaining $0.5 bln due in April). Among the credit strengths,
Moody's cites SIBUR's sizable export operations generating 50% of total revenues, high
flexibility with implementation of the ZapSib-2 investment project, as well as significant
cash reserves (RUB 27 bln as of end 2014) and available long-term committed facilities.
Source: Bloomberg, Gazprombank estimates
The negative outlook is explained by Russia’s deteriorating operating environment
(reflected in the negative outlook on the sovereign rating) as well as a potential reduction
of capex flexibility during the later stages of ZapSib-2 implementation (i.e. negative free
cash flow, higher debt funding needs).
Opinion: We believe that the rating confirmation (at the sovereign level) and the
agency’s rhetoric regarding SIBUR’s current credit profile are supportive for the
SIBUR18 bond SIBUR 18 (YTM 7.28%, Z-spread 625 bps), which still offers an attractive
risk/reward profile.
Research Department
8
Copyright © 2003-2015
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
APRIL 3, 2015
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
SIBUR may obtain financing for ZapSib-2 from Chinese investors
News: The Russia-Chinese Investment Fund (RCIF), a joint venture between the
Russian Fund of Direct Investments (RFPI) and China Investment Corporation (CIC), is
ready to invest in SIBUR’s large capex project, ZapSib-2. RFPI has expressed a
readiness to arrange debt financing from Chinese banks in a potential amount of up to
$1 bln, and the possibility was also outlined to invest RCIF funds in a SIBUR additional
share issue.
Opinion: Thus far we have not heard of any company plans to arrange equity issuance.
In this context, the option of organizing debt financing seems more probable at the
current stage.
TICKER
SIBUR
Target price
-
Closing price
-
Recommendation
-
Upside
-
Ratings
-/Ba1/BB+
Source: Bloomberg, Gazprombank estimates
ZapSib-2’s potential total cost and respective funding needs are currently under revision,
although previous guidance stood at around $9.5 bln. The project has a large FXdenominated component and obtaining funding for the project in foreign currency seems
advantageous for SIBUR.
To remind, the company has already signed an agreement on a long-term syndicated
facility with European banks for EUR 1.6 bln to finance ZapSib-2. Moreover, SIBUR said
earlier that it was in the process of negotiating with other export credit agencies, which
may fully cover all of the EUR-denominated needs for the project’s construction.
Research Department
9
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Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
APRIL 3, 2015
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
Baker Hughes: US oil rig decline smallest since December
The number of rigs drilling for oil in the US declined by 12 this week to 813, the
smallest decline since December, oil services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely
watched survey.
That compares with declines of 41 and 56 rigs in the prior two weeks and is a sign that
the collapse in drilling over the past few months has slowed.
With the decline this week, the number of oil rigs has fallen for a record 16th week in a
row to the lowest level since 2011, according to Baker Hughes data going back to 1987.
Despite the reduction in oil-directed rigs by about 49% since hitting a record high of
1,609 in October, the more than 50% decline in oil prices since the summer has forced
US energy firms to slash spending and idle wells but has not yet slowed oil output.
US oil production hit 9.4 mln bpd last week, the highest since the early 1970s,
according to US government data, as drillers focus on their most productive acreage,
become more efficient at extracting oil from existing wells and complete previously
drilled wells.
Wood Mackenzie sees exploration bounce back as costs fall
A new report by Wood Mackenzie projects that drilling activity levels will rebound in
2016 as costs fall. Upstream companies have slashed 2015 exploration spending by
an average of 30%, Wood Mackenzie said.
The report found that drilling activity will bounce back to 2014 levels as day rates and
other expenses drop in response to spending cuts. Wood Mackenzie projects that
exploration deflation will average 33% by 2016, while like-for-like costs will drop 19%.
Upstream companies are expected to reap the full benefit of the reduced expenditures
in 2016 unless oil prices recover faster. The projected deflation rate will allow
companies that keep their drilling spending flat into 2016 to fund 50% more exploration
projects than in 2014, the report said.
Asian imports of Iranian crude fall 2%, led by India and South Korea
Asian purchases of Iranian crude fell by a quarter in February from a year ago, led by
big drops in India and South Korea, although the future of Tehran's oil exports remains
murky as it and six world powers race to reach a preliminary nuclear deal.
While down YoY, imports by Iran's four biggest buyers – China, India, Japan and
South Korea – bounced back to average 1.02 mln bpd in February, a two-month high,
government and tanker-tracking data showed.
The biggest cuts came from India, where refiners had earlier been told to "virtually
halt" Iranian oil imports in February-March to keep the volumes within target levels.
Asia's intake of Iranian crude fell 23% in the first two months of 2015, with India and
South Korea importing around 40% less than in the same period last year.
Iran is keen to recover market share lost under the US-led sanctions that have curbed
its exports to around 1 mln bpd from 2.5 mln bpd in 2011. That said, until a final deal is
reached on its nuclear activities, of the four Asian buyers only China is likely to
increase imports, sources said.
SOCAR starts exporting petroleum products in new direction
The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) has started exporting petroleum
products through Russian territory, a source in Azerbaijan's energy market told Trend
Research Department
10
Copyright © 2003-2015
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
APRIL 3, 2015
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
on March 31. The source said that SOCAR currently exports two types of petroleum
products: diesel fuel and vacuum gas oil.
To date, around 40,000 metric tons of petroleum products (10,000 metric tons of diesel
fuel and 30,000 metric tons of vacuum gas oil) have been exported via the new route,
according to the source.
However, the source did not name the countries to which the oil products are exported
via the new route.
SOCAR exported 127,330 metric tons of petroleum products in January, compared to
88,260 metric tons in the same period of 2014. The company exported 1.2 mln metric
tons of petroleum products in 2014, compared to about 1.05 mln metric tons in the
same period of 2013.
Earlier, the petroleum products were produced at two oil refineries in Baku. Both plants
were part of SOCAR, which annually processes approximately 7 mln metric tons of oil
produced onshore and offshore with the company's own funds.
SOCAR announced the liquidation of Azneftyag oil refinery and its merger with the
Baku Oil Refinery named after Heydar Aliyev in December 2014. Georgia imports a
significant part of Azerbaijan's petroleum products.
China Development Bank to finance Petrobras
On Wednesday, Brazil's state-run Petrobras announced that it had signed a $3.5 bln
credit facility agreement under a cooperation deal with China Development Bank,
which will be implemented during 2015 and 2016. The deal comes as a rescue
mission, as the corruption scandal involving the company has limited its access to
international bond markets. Petrobras shares reacted with 6.2% growth immediately
after the deal’s announcement, while yields on the company’s outstanding medium
and long-term eurobonds fell by 50-25 bps DoD (+1.5-4.0 pps in price). No additional
details regarding the deal were disclosed.
Research Department
11
Copyright © 2003-2015
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
APRIL 3, 2015
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
EQUITY PERFORMANCE
Equity weekly performance, in USD, % change
Gazprombank recommendations
SurgutNG
GPB
RATING
15.9%
Tatneft
14.1%
Rosneft
12.6%
Lukoil
9.8%
Transneft
9.0%
Eurasia Drilling
7.2%
Gazprom neft
3.0%
Bashneft 0.2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
CLOSING
PRICE,
RUB/$
UPSIDE
2323
2641
311.7
31.8
201.2
32.1
1861
2780.5
262.55
37
157.6
32.38
25%
-5%
19%
-14%
28%
-1%
1861
28.3
217
1344
47.5
166.8
38%
-40%
30%
201.2
161
143.9
83.75
40%
92%
76309
133000
-43%
n/a
n/a
n/a
19.2
10.9
10.95
n/a
n/a
n/a
Russian oil companies
N
Bashneft
OW
Lukoil
N
Rosneft
N
Surgutneftegas
Gazprom Neft
OW
Tatneft ADR
N
Preferred shares**
N
Bashneft pref
OW
SurgutNG
OW
Tatneft
Russian gas companies
OW
Gazprom
OW
NOVATEK
Russian pipeline companies
UW
Transneft pref
Russian OFS
Eurasia Drilling.
u/r
u/r
C.A.T. Oil
u/r
IGSS
14.9%
Novatek
TARGET
PRICE, RUB/$
18%
Source: Bloomberg (as of April 2)
Source: Gazprombank estimates, Bloomberg (as of April 2)
Financial valuation
Operational valuation
41
25
PetroChina
36
ConocoPhillips
Chevron
P/E 15
26
BP
RD Shell
EM Total
21
16
11
DM
EV/Reserves
20
31
ExxonMobil
Petrobras
Novatek
Tatneft
oils
6 BashneftRussian
Lukoil
Rosneft
Gazprom Neft
Gazprom
1
1
3
5
RD Shell
EM
15
9
Petrobras
10
ConocoPhillips
BP
Rosneft
Lukoil RussianBashneft
oils
Tatneft
Gazprom Neft
Novatek
Gazprom
0
SurgutNG
0
50
100
11
Source: Gazprombank estimates, Bloomberg (as of April 2)
30%
11%
0%
Gazprom Neft
Gazprom
-10%
Lukoil
3-yr CAGR Net income
3-yr CAGR EBITDA
16%
Russian
oils
Tatneft
Gazprom Neft
PetroChina
-4%
3
5
7
9
Russian
oils
Lukoil
Tatneft
SurgutNG
-20%
Petrobras
RD Shell
-30%
EM
Total
BP
PetroChina
DM ExxonMobil
Chevron
-40%
ConocoPhillips
-50%
-60%
0
EV/EBITDA 15
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
P/E 15
Source: Gazprombank estimates, Bloomberg (as of April 2)
Research Department
350
Rosneft
10%
Bashneft
1
300
Novatek
20%
Novatek
Bashneft
250
Net income growth valuation
Rosneft
1%
200
Source: Gazprombank estimates, Bloomberg (as of April 2)
EBITDA growth valuation
6%
Gazprom
150
EV/Production 15
EV/EBITDA 15
21%
ExxonMobil
DM
Total
5
7
PetroChina
Chevron
Source: Gazprombank estimates, Bloomberg (as of April 2)
12
Copyright © 2003-2015
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
APRIL 3, 2015
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
EQUITY VALUATION
GPB
RATING
CLOSING
PRICE,
RUB/$
MARKET
CAP, $
MLN
5D
1M
YTD
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
PERFORMANCE, $
EV/EBITDA
P/E
EV/PRODUCTION
EV/RESERVES
DIVIDEND
YIELD
Russian oil companies
Bashneft
N
1861.0
6,404
0%
23%
56%
2.5
2.7
3.5
3.5
72
70
4.2
5.0%
Gazprom Neft
OW
157.6
13,282
3%
1%
13%
2.4
2.9
2.7
2.6
43
38
2.2
6.0%
Lukoil
OW
2780.5
42,037
10%
1%
26%
2.4
2.1
3.1
2.8
57
54
3.0
4.0%
Rosneft
N
262.6
49,459
13%
7%
35%
4.0
3.6
3.6
3.3
69
66
4.1
4.9%
Surgutneftegas
N
37.0
29,998
7%
12%
57%
0.9
0.9
7.8
8.1
1
1
0.1
1.6%
Tatneft
N
5.4
12,113
15%
0%
27%
3.4
3.6
5.7
5.5
72
73
2.2
2.7%
2.6
2.6
4.4
4.3
52
50
2.6
4.0%
Average
Russian gas companies
Gazprom
OW
143.9
60,551
9%
2%
11%
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.9
29
29
0.8
5.0%
NOVATEK
OW
467.2
25,214
14%
0%
8%
7.0
6.0
7.6
5.7
64
55
1.9
1.7%
4.4
3.9
4.7
3.8
47
42
1.4
3.3%
13%
3.2
3.2
2.3
2.2
n/a
n/a
n/a
0.5%
Average
Russian pipeline companies
Transneft pref
UW
133000.0
16,767
Eurasia Drilling
u/r
19.2
2,818
7%
9%
7%
3.5
3.3
6.3
6.1
n/a
n/a
n/a
4.7%
IGSS
u/r
11.0
114
10%
-21%
-17%
3.0
2.6
3.7
2.3
n/a
n/a
n/a
0.0%
C.A.T. Oil (in EUR)
u/r
11.9
579
-1%
-8%
-37%
4.1
3.2
8.2
6.2
n/a
n/a
n/a
1.6%
3.5
3.0
6.1
4.9
9%
7%
Russian OFS
Average
2.1%
Preferred shares**
Bashneft pref
N
1344.0
712
4%
20%
54%
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
8.0%
SurgutNG
OW
47.5
6,503
16%
28%
62%
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
19.0%
Tatneft
OW
166.8
437
6%
8%
28%
Average
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
8.0%
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
11.7%
Emerging market oils
PetroChina
n/r
1.1
331,256
3%
-3%
1%
7.8
9.2
18.9
35.5
300
296
19.3
3.0%
Petrobras
n/r
3.4
44,525
11%
-1%
-15%
6.6
6.0
6.9
7.4
143
134
10.8
9.3%
Kunlun Energy
n/r
1.0
7,986
0%
-3%
2%
6.0
5.9
10.7
12.2
590
590
12.8
2.6%
Sinopec
n/r
0.8
119,313
2%
-5%
0%
6.5
7.3
14.1
21.7
388
368
45.4
3.2%
YPF
n/r
38.3
15,060
-4%
7%
6%
3.9
3.5
13.7
13.0
111
111
20.0
0.3%
CNOOC
n/r
1.4
64,383
5%
-1%
6%
3.3
4.4
7.6
17.3
166
166
20.4
5.1%
PTT EP
n/r
3.5
13,874
4%
-1%
0%
2.7
3.3
9.6
12.7
125
125
15.7
4.0%
ONGC
n/r
4.9
42,077
-1%
-5%
-9%
4.7
5.1
9.5
10.6
111
111
6.6
3.0%
Sasol Ltd
n/r
33.1
21,540
-2%
-3%
-9%
3.7
5.5
6.6
11.6
253
253
13.9
5.2%
MOL
n/r
46.2
4,829
-3%
1%
-1%
5.3
5.3
10.5
12.8
241
241
14.3
4.6%
Kazmunaigas EP
n/r
12.2
4,954
-2%
7%
-11%
2.6
7.0
3.5
14.5
22
22
0.5
14.6%
4.8
5.7
10.1
15.4
223
220
16.3
5.0%
Average
Developed market majors
BP
n/r
39.7
120,637
-1%
-4%
3%
4.2
5.6
10.1
19.2
132
131
8.5
6.1%
Chevron
n/r
105.3
197,945
0%
-1%
-7%
4.5
7.2
10.8
27.4
227
223
18.8
4.1%
ConocoPhillips
n/r
63.2
77,804
0%
-2%
-10%
4.5
8.0
11.7
70.3
168
165
11.1
4.6%
ENI
n/r
17.5
63,557
1%
-5%
-1%
3.8
5.2
14.3
33.4
155
147
12.5
7.0%
ExxonMobil
n/r
84.3
353,612
0%
-4%
-9%
5.5
8.4
11.4
21.4
265
259
15.3
3.3%
Royal Dutch Shell
n/r
30.0
193,863
-2%
-6%
-10%
3.7
5.5
8.3
16.2
195
198
16.4
5.4%
Statoil
n/r
18.0
57,434
-2%
-5%
-1%
2.4
3.4
10.3
23.2
98
98
12.3
5.0%
Total
n/r
49.9
118,932
-1%
-5%
-3%
4.3
5.8
9.6
14.9
194
179
13.4
5.3%
4.1
6.2
10.8
28.3
179
175
13.5
5.1%
Average
Source: Bloomberg (as of April 2)
Research Department
13
Copyright © 2003-2015
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
APRIL 3, 2015
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
FIXED INCOME SUMMARY
Russian O&G majors capital structure
EM O&G debt-relative valuation, as of April 3
900
Z-SPREAD,
BPS
EDCLLI 20
100%
800
80%
700
NVTKRM 22
60%
SIBUR 18
600
500
40%
GAZPRU 4.95
KZOKZ 21
22
SOIAZ 23
400
20%
LUKOIL 22
300
0%
GAZPROM
RUBLE BONDS
ROSNEFT
LUKOIL
EUROBONDS
GAZPROM
NEFT
NOVATEK BASHNEFT TRANSNEFT
BANK LOANS AND OTHER INDEBTEDNESS
PEMEX 4.875
22
200
NET DEBT/ LTM EBITDA IN USD TERMS
100
EQUITY
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Source: companies, Gazprombank estimates
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
2.0
4.0
4.5
5.0
RosNeft 22
Gazprom 20E
Gazprom 21E
Gazprom 19
Novatek 22
Gazprom 20P
Gazprom 25E
Novatek 21
Lukoil 23
0
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Source: companies, Gazprombank estimates
EM O&G latest deals
75%
USD BLN
8
Date
60%
6
45%
4
2
0%
OCT 13
NOV 13
DEC 13
JAN 14
FEB 14
MAR 14
APR 14
MAY 14
JUN 14
JUL 14
AUG 14
SEP 14
OCT 14
NOV 14
DEC 14
JAN 15
FEB 15
MAR 15
APR 15
0
SHARE OF TOTAL DEALS (RHS)
Source: Bond Radar, Gazprombank estimates
RATINGS M/S/F
COUNTRY
CRNCY
VOLUME,
USD MLN
TENOR
COUPON
3.50%
PETROLEOS MEXICANOS
A3/BBB+/BBB+
MEXICO
USD
1 500
4,5
15.01.15
PETROLEOS MEXICANOS
A3/BBB+/BBB+
MEXICO
USD
1 500
11
4.50%
15.01.15
PETROLEOS MEXICANOS
A3/BBB+/BBB+
MEXICO
USD
3 000
31
5.625%
Caa1/-/CCC
ARGENTINA
USD
177
4
8.875%
Caa1/-/CCC
ARGENTINA
USD
321
9
8.75%
-/-/-
MEXICO
MXN
628
12
7.47%
04.02.15
15%
COMPANY
15.01.15
04.02.15
30%
Research Department
3.5
Gazprom 18E 3.7
EM O&G primary market
PRIMARY O&G DEALS
3.0
Russia O&G eurobonds weekly top >5Y movers (Z-spreads to MS)
Source: companies, Gazprombank estimates
10
2.5
Source: companies, Bloomberg, Gazprombank estimates
Russia O&G eurobonds weekly top 3-5Y movers (Z-spreads to MS)
-60
PETBRA 5.375
21
ROSNRM 22
SIBNEF 22
YACIMIENTOS
PETROLIFEROS FISCALES
YACIMIENTOS
PETROLIFEROS FISCALES
05.02.15
PETROLEOS MEXICANOS
05.02.15
EUSTREAM
Baa1/-/A-
SLOVAKIA
EUR
566
10
2.625%
11.03.15
PETRONAS
А1/А-/-
MALAYSIA
USD
1 250
5
2.707%
11.03.15
PETRONAS
А1/А-/-
MALAYSIA
USD
750
7
3.125%
11.03.15
PETRONAS
А1/А-/-
MALAYSIA
USD
1 500
10
3.50%
11.03.15
PETRONAS
А1/А-/-
MALAYSIA
USD
1 500
30
4.50%
11.03.15
STATE OIL COMPANY OF
AZERBAIJAN REPUBLIC
Ва1/ВВ+/ВВВ-
AZERBAIJAN
USD
750
15
6.95%
26.03.15
GENEL ENERGY
-/-/-
TURKEY
USD
230
4
7,50%
Source: Bond Radar, Bloomberg, Gazprombank. estimates
14
Copyright © 2003-2015
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
APRIL 3, 2015
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
FIXED INCOME VALUATION
YIELD, %
Russian oil and gas: local and E/C bonds universe
15.5
15.0
BKE
BashN-2
Rosneft-05
Rosneft-08
Rosneft-04
GazpNeft-4
BashN-6
BashN-8
GazpCap-4
GazpCap-5
GazpNeft-10 GazpNeft-12
Rosneft-06 Rosneft-10
14.5
Novtk17R
BashN-4
GazpCap-6
GazpNeft-9
NOVATEK-4bo
Transneft-3bo
GazpNeft-8
NOVATEK-3bo
Gazprom-21bo
NOVATEK-2bo
Rosneft-19bo
Rosneft-20bo
14.0
13.5
13.0
12.5
BashN-9
BashN-7
Rosneft-09
BashN-1
12.0
Rosneft-12bo
Rosneft-02bo
Rosneft-10bo Rosneft-08bo
11.5
11.0
Rosneft-01bo
10.5
NK Alliance-6
10.0
Rosneft-07
RUB ZCurve Swap (NDF+CCS)
9.5
Логарифмическая (OFZ Curve)
BashN-3
9.0
Rosneft-06bo
8.5
Rosneft-07bo
Rosneft-05bo
8.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
DURATION, YEARS
3.0
3.5
4.0
● — YIELD TO MATURITY ▲ — YIELD TO PUT ■ — YIELD TO CALL BOND^ — SUBORDINATED
Source: companies, Gazprombank estimates
Russian oil and gas: USD eurobonds universe
YIELD, %
8.0
7.5
TNK20
7.0
TNK18
6.5
6.0
Gaz21
Lukoil20
Gaz18 Lukoil19 Gaz20
Lukoil18
RosNft17
TNK16
5.0
Novtk22
RosNft22
Gaz22 6.51
TrNft18
TNK17
5.5
Gaz19
Novtk21
SibNft23
SibNft22
Lukoil23
Gaz22 4.95
Lukoil22
Gaz34
Gaz37
Gaz28
Rus28
Rus42
Rus22
Rus43
Rus23
Rus20
4.5
Novtk16
4.0
Rus19
Lukoil17
Rus18
Gaz16NOV
Gaz15N
Gaz16MAY
Gaz15
3.5
3.0
Rus30
Rus17
2.5
2.0
UST Curve
1.5
1.0
Rus15
0.5
DURATION, YEARS
0.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
● — YIELD TO MATURITY ▲ — YIELD TO PUT ■ — YIELD TO CALL BOND^ — SUBORDINATED
Source: companies, Gazprombank estimates
Research Department
15
Copyright © 2003-2015
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
APRIL 3, 2015
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
FIXED INCOME VALUATION
Oil and gas: Russia vs. EM
YIELD, %
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
Gaz34
Petrobras40 Petrobras41
Gaz37
Petrobras20
Petrobras21
Petrobras19
Gaz22 6.51
Petrobras18 8.375
Gaz21
Petrobras18 5.875
Gaz22 4.95
Gaz19
Gaz20
Petrobras17
Gaz18
5.5
Gaz28
Rus28
Rus23
5.0
Rus22
Rus20
Petrobras16 6.125
Rus19
Petrobras16 3.875
4.5
Pemex35.1
Rus43
Rus42
Pemex38
Pemex41
Pemex45
Pemex44.1
Pemex44.2
Pemex23 3.5
Gaz16NOV Rus18
Gaz15N
Pemex22.5
Rus30
Gaz16MAY
Pemex21.2
Gaz15
Rus17
Pemex20
Pemex19F
Pemex19
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
Pemex18.4
2.0
UST Curve
1.5
1.0
Rus15
0.5
DURATION, YEARS
0.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
● — YIELD TO MATURITY ▲ — YIELD TO PUT ■ — YIELD TO CALL BOND^ — SUBORDINATED
Source: companies, Gazprombank estimates
YIELD, %
Oil and gas: Russia vs. CIS
11
Zhaik19
Zhaik19N
10
9
TNK20
8
Novtk22
Novtk21
SibNft23
RosNft22
SibNft22
TNK18
7
Gaz21
Gaz22 6.51
KTG17
Gaz19
Lukoil23
Lukoil20
Lukoil19
GeoOilGas17
Gaz22 4.95
Lukoil22
TrNft18
6
Gaz20
KMG23
TNK17 Gaz18
KMG20 KMG21 SOCAR23
Lukoil18
TNK16 RosNft17
5
KMG18
Rus23
Rus20
Novtk16
Rus22
Lukoil17
Rus19
4
Gaz16NOV
Rus18
Gaz15N Gaz15 SOCAR17
Rus30
Gaz16MAY
3
Rus17
Gaz34
Gaz37
Gaz28
KMG43
Rus28
Rus43
Rus42
2
UST Curve
1
Rus15
DURATION, YEARS
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
● — YIELD TO MATURITY ▲ — YIELD TO PUT ■ — YIELD TO CALL BOND^ — SUBORDINATED
Source: companies, Gazprombank estimates
Research Department
16
Copyright © 2003-2015
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
APRIL 3, 2015
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
FIXED INCOME VALUATION
Gazprom 19 –Pemex 18.4
Gazprom 19 – Petrobras 19
LAST 418 AVG 375 MAX 725 MIN 195
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
LAST -47 AVG 108 MAX 305 MIN -98
400
300
200
100
0
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
APR-15
MAR-15
FEB-15
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
Rosneft 22 –Pemex 22.5
Petrobras 17 –Lukoil 17
LAST 353 AVG 318 MAX 641 MIN 137
740
640
540
440
340
240
140
40
JAN-15
DEC-14
NOV-14
OCT-14
SEP-14
AUG-14
JUL-14
JUN-14
APR-14
MAY-14
-200
APR-15
MAR-15
FEB-15
JAN-15
DEC-14
NOV-14
OCT-14
SEP-14
AUG-14
JUL-14
JUN-14
MAY-14
APR-14
-100
LAST 204 AVG -98 MAX 327 MIN -538
400
200
0
-200
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
APR-15
APR-15
MAR-15
FEB-15
JAN-15
DEC-14
NOV-14
OCT-14
SEP-14
AUG-14
JUL-14
JUN-14
MAY-14
APR-14
APR-15
MAR-15
FEB-15
JAN-15
80
DEC-14
130
70
NOV-14
90
OCT-14
180
SEP-14
230
110
AUG-14
280
130
JUL-14
150
JUN-14
330
MAY-14
LAST 239 AVG 186 MAX 329 MIN 97
380
170
APR-14
MAR-15
Rosneft 22 – Russia 22
LAST 144 AVG 118 MAX 174 MIN 92
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
Rosneft 22 –Lukoil 23
Gazprom 25E – Gazprom 17E 5.136%
LAST 68 AVG 68 MAX 224 MIN 5
260
FEB-15
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
Gazprom 37 –Russia 42
190
JAN-15
DEC-14
NOV-14
OCT-14
SEP-14
AUG-14
JUL-14
JUN-14
APR-14
MAY-14
-600
APR-15
MAR-15
FEB-15
JAN-15
DEC-14
NOV-14
OCT-14
SEP-14
AUG-14
JUL-14
JUN-14
MAY-14
APR-14
-400
LAST 43 AVG 35 MAX 155 MIN -294
200
210
100
160
0
110
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
Research Department
APR-15
MAR-15
FEB-15
JAN-15
DEC-14
NOV-14
OCT-14
SEP-14
AUG-14
JUL-14
JUN-14
APR-14
APR-15
MAR-15
FEB-15
JAN-15
DEC-14
NOV-14
OCT-14
SEP-14
AUG-14
JUL-14
-400
JUN-14
-300
-40
MAY-14
-200
10
APR-14
60
MAY-14
-100
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
17
Copyright © 2003-2015
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
APRIL 3, 2015
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
FIXED INCOME VALUATION
Rosneft 04 – OFZ 26206
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
APR-15
MAR-15
FEB-15
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
NOVATEK-2BO – OFZ 25075
Gazprom Capital 04 – OFZ 26204
LAST 106 AVG -23 MAX 395 MIN -739
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
JAN-15
DEC-14
NOV-14
OCT-14
APR-14
APR-15
MAR-15
FEB-15
JAN-15
DEC-14
NOV-14
OCT-14
SEP-14
AUG-14
JUL-14
JUN-14
MAY-14
-400
SEP-14
-200
JUN-14
0
MAY-14
200
APR-14
LAST 192 AVG 102 MAX 586 MIN -431
800
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
AUG-14
LAST 141 AVG 47 MAX 339 MIN -314
400
JUL-14
Gazprom Neft 12– OFZ 26206
LAST 161 AVG 25 MAX 381 MIN -458
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
APR-15
APR-15
MAR-15
FEB-15
JAN-15
DEC-14
NOV-14
OCT-14
SEP-14
AUG-14
APR-14
APR-15
MAR-15
FEB-15
JAN-15
DEC-14
NOV-14
OCT-14
SEP-14
AUG-14
JUL-14
JUN-14
-400
JUL-14
-200
JUN-14
0
MAY-14
200
MAY-14
LAST -52 AVG -57 MAX 368 MIN -671
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
400
APR-14
MAR-15
Gazprom Neft 12 – Rosneft 04
LAST 17 AVG 83 MAX 549 MIN -190
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
NOVATEK 17R – NOVATEK 2 CP
NOVATEK 17R – Gazprom Capital 05
LAST 141 AVG 268 MAX 1178 MIN -96
1360
1160
960
760
560
360
160
-40
FEB-15
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
Bashneft 06 –Gazprom Neft 12
600
JAN-15
DEC-14
NOV-14
OCT-14
SEP-14
AUG-14
JUL-14
JUN-14
MAY-14
APR-14
APR-15
MAR-15
FEB-15
JAN-15
DEC-14
NOV-14
OCT-14
SEP-14
AUG-14
JUL-14
JUN-14
MAY-14
APR-14
-600
LAST 51 AVG 116 MAX 438 MIN -300
600
400
200
0
Research Department
APR-15
MAR-15
FEB-15
JAN-15
DEC-14
NOV-14
OCT-14
SEP-14
AUG-14
JUL-14
JUN-14
APR-14
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
MAY-14
-400
APR-15
MAR-15
FEB-15
JAN-15
DEC-14
NOV-14
OCT-14
SEP-14
AUG-14
JUL-14
JUN-14
MAY-14
APR-14
-200
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
18
Copyright © 2003-2015
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
APRIL 3, 2015
INDICATIVE
ISSUE VOLUME
ISSUE
DUR
CLOSE PRICE
CHG, BPS
Z-SPD (SWAP)
CHG, BPS
BashNeft-1
95.00
+480
-58
-299
BashNeft-2
91.00
+50
223
BashNeft-3
98.95
-
-368
BashNeft-4
101.70
+59
1
BashNeft-5bo
90.00
BashNeft-6
89.05
+230
232
BashNeft-7
84.95
+445
BashNeft-8
89.08
BashNeft-9
83.31
BK Eurasia
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
DATES
CPN
RATING
AMT. OUTST.
CCY
PLACEMENT
PUT/CALL
MATURITY
1.6
15,000
RUB
8.35
Dec 22, 2009
Dec 13, 2016
-/Ba2/BB
-36
1.6
15,000
RUB
8.35
Dec 22, 2009
Dec 13, 2016
-/Ba2/BB
-
1.6
20,000
RUB
8.35
Dec 22, 2009
Dec 13, 2016
-/Ba2/BB
-102
0.8
10,000
RUB
16.0
Feb 17, 2012
Feb 12, 2016
Feb 4, 2022
-/Ba2/BB
3.2
10,000
RUB
10.7
May 26, 2014
Nov 19, 2018
May 13, 2024
-/Ba2/BB
-111
2.5
10,000
RUB
8.65
Feb 12, 2013
Feb 6, 2018
Jan 31, 2023
-/Ba2/BB
273
-145
3.9
10,000
RUB
8.85
Feb 12, 2013
Feb 4, 2020
Jan 31, 2023
-/Ba2/BB
+253
230
-123
2.5
5,000
RUB
8.65
Feb 12, 2013
Feb 6, 2018
Jan 31, 2023
-/Ba2/BB
+330
329
-106
3.9
5,000
RUB
8.85
Feb 12, 2013
Feb 4, 2020
Jan 31, 2023
-/Ba2/BB
92.96
-
201
+32
1.2
5,000
RUB
8.4
Jun 29, 2011
Jun 27, 2016
Jun 20, 2018
-/-/BB
Gazprom Capital-4
86.50
+50
230
-15
2.6
5,000
RUB
7.55
Feb 21, 2013
Feb 15, 2018
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom Capital-5
90.75
+105
119
-79
1.8
10,000
RUB
7.55
Feb 21, 2013
Feb 16, 2017
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom Capital-6
95.30
+100
-46
-104
0.9
15,000
RUB
7.5
Feb 21, 2013
Feb 18, 2016
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom neft-10
89.80
+106
219
-43
2.5
10,000
RUB
8.9
Feb 8, 2011
Feb 5, 2018
Jan 26, 2021
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom neft-11
95.01
0.9
10,000
RUB
12.0
Feb 7, 2012
Feb 2, 2016
Jan 25, 2022
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom neft-12
89.65
-35
202
+50
2.4
10,000
RUB
8.5
Dec 5, 2012
Nov 29, 2017
Nov 23, 2022
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom neft-4
87.00
+299
264
-104
2.6
10,000
RUB
8.2
Apr 21, 2009
Apr 16, 2018
Apr 9, 2019
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom neft-8
96.47
+57
-59
-7
0.8
10,000
RUB
8.5
Feb 8, 2011
Feb 2, 2016
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom neft-9
96.20
+80
-69
-109
0.8
10,000
RUB
8.5
Feb 8, 2011
Feb 8, 2016
Jan 26, 2021
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom-19bo (CPI)
100.00
15,000
RUB
9.3
Nov 27, 2013
Oct 21, 2043
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom-20bo (CPI)
100.00
15,000
RUB
9.3
Nov 27, 2013
Oct 21, 2043
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom-21bo
98.80
+35
-163
-75
0.5
15,000
RUB
10.7
Oct 28, 2014
Oct 27, 2015
Sep 20, 2044
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Geotech Seismorazvedka-1
82.23
+23
1,379
+8
1.4
3,000
RUB
10.5
Oct 23, 2013
Oct 19, 2016
Oct 17, 2018
B/-/-
NK Alliance-4
68.99
+895
3,655
-1747
1.1
5,000
RUB
8.85
Jun 14, 2011
Jun 10, 2016
Jun 1, 2021
-/-/-
NK Alliance-6
98.41
1.3
7,000
RUB
8.85
Jun 17, 2011
Jun 15, 2016
Jun 4, 2021
-/-/-
NOVATEK-2bo
97.80
-100
-156
+226
0.5
10,000
RUB
8.35
Oct 15, 2012
Oct 12, 2015
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
NOVATEK-3bo
97.71
-29
-137
+88
NOVATEK-4bo
97.50
NPK-1
PromNefteService-1bo
DOMESTIC BONDS
159
430
-623
0.5
5,000
RUB
8.35
Oct 15, 2012
Oct 12, 2015
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
-95
0.5
5,000
RUB
8.35
Oct 15, 2012
Oct 12, 2015
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
100.00
354
0.7
500
RUB
17.5
Dec 30, 2014
Dec 29, 2015
Dec 26, 2017
-/-/-
100.00
-448
0.7
5,000
RUB
10.5
Nov 27, 2014
Nov 26, 2015
Nov 21, 2019
-/-/-
Rosneft-01bo
95.00
-151
3.4
15,000
RUB
8.9
Feb 18, 2014
Feb 12, 2019
Feb 6, 2024
BB+/Ba1/-
Rosneft-02bo
100.00
2.6
15,000
RUB
11.9
Dec 11, 2014
Dec 7, 2017
Nov 28, 2024
BB+/Ba1/-
Rosneft-03bo
100.08
+2
-9
+7
2.3
15,000
RUB
11.9
Dec 11, 2014
Dec 7, 2017
Nov 28, 2024
BB+/Ba1/-
Rosneft-04
89.24
+24
227
-26
2.3
10,000
RUB
8.6
Oct 29, 2012
Oct 23, 2017
Oct 17, 2022
BB+/Ba1/-
Research Department
-17
19
Copyright © 2003-2015
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
APRIL 3, 2015
INDICATIVE
ISSUE VOLUME
ISSUE
DUR
CLOSE PRICE
CHG, BPS
Z-SPD (SWAP)
CHG, BPS
Rosneft-04bo
100.09
Rosneft-05
89.00
+1
-10
-25
-
240
-13
Rosneft-05bo
Rosneft-06
100.00
+1
-315
88.01
-1121
168
Rosneft-06bo
97.99
-201
-253
Rosneft-07
95.00
+1015
-152
Rosneft-07bo
101.21
Rosneft-08
85.65
Rosneft-08bo
100.07
+2
Rosneft-09
89.00
-1022
Rosneft-09bo
100.08
+1
Rosneft-10
88.00
Rosneft-10bo
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
DATES
CPN
CCY
2.3
15,000
RUB
11.9
2.3
10,000
RUB
8.6
-7
3.2
20,000
RUB
+514
2.8
10,000
RUB
+55
3.2
20,000
-500
2.7
RATING
PUT/CALL
MATURITY
Dec 11, 2014
Dec 7, 2017
Nov 28, 2024
BB+/Ba1/-
Oct 29, 2012
Oct 23, 2017
Oct 17, 2022
BB+/Ba1/-
7.95
Dec 23, 2013
Dec 17, 2018
Dec 11, 2023
BB+/Ba1/-
7.95
Jun 11, 2013
Jun 5, 2018
May 30, 2023
BB+/Ba1/-
RUB
7.95
Dec 23, 2013
Dec 17, 2018
Dec 11, 2023
BB+/Ba1/-
15,000
RUB
8.0
Mar 22, 2013
Mar 16, 2018
Mar 10, 2023
BB+/Ba1/-
3.3
20,000
RUB
8.9
Feb 18, 2014
Feb 12, 2019
Feb 6, 2024
BB+/Ba1/-
-
2.7
15,000
RUB
8.0
Mar 22, 2013
Mar 16, 2018
Mar 10, 2023
BB+/Ba1/-
-9
+7
2.3
20,000
RUB
11.9
Dec 11, 2014
Dec 7, 2017
Nov 28, 2024
BB+/Ba1/-
132
+477
2.8
15,000
RUB
7.95
Jun 11, 2013
Jun 5, 2018
May 30, 2023
BB+/Ba1/-
-9
+7
2.3
20,000
RUB
11.9
Dec 11, 2014
Dec 7, 2017
Nov 28, 2024
BB+/Ba1/-
+250
149
-129
2.8
15,000
RUB
7.95
Jun 11, 2013
Jun 5, 2018
May 30, 2023
BB+/Ba1/-
100.05
+2
18
+47
2.3
20,000
RUB
11.9
Dec 11, 2014
Dec 7, 2017
Nov 28, 2024
BB+/Ba1/-
Rosneft-11bo
100.04
+3
19
+47
2.3
30,000
RUB
11.9
Dec 11, 2014
Dec 7, 2017
Nov 28, 2024
BB+/Ba1/-
Rosneft-12bo
100.03
+1
19
+48
2.3
30,000
RUB
11.9
Dec 11, 2014
Dec 7, 2017
Nov 28, 2024
BB+/Ba1/-
Rosneft-13bo
100.05
+4
30,000
RUB
11.9
Dec 11, 2014
Nov 28, 2024
BB+/Ba1/-
Rosneft-14bo
100.06
+4
30,000
RUB
11.9
Dec 11, 2014
Dec 7, 2017
Nov 28, 2024
BB+/Ba1/-
Rosneft-15bo
101.50
-
175,000
RUB
17.4
Dec 11, 2014
Dec 7, 2017
Dec 3, 2020
BB+/Ba1/-
Rosneft-16bo
100.06
+3
100,000
RUB
17.4
Dec 11, 2014
Dec 7, 2017
Dec 3, 2020
BB+/Ba1/-
Rosneft-17bo
102.07
-2
100,000
RUB
17.4
Dec 11, 2014
Dec 7, 2017
Dec 3, 2020
BB+/Ba1/-
Rosneft-18bo
100.00
-240
0.9
100,000
RUB
11.9
Jan 26, 2015
Jan 25, 2016
Jan 18, 2021
BB+/Ba1/-
Rosneft-19bo
100.00
-240
0.9
50,000
RUB
11.9
Jan 26, 2015
Jan 25, 2016
Jan 18, 2021
BB+/Ba1/-
Rosneft-20bo
100.00
-240
0.9
50,000
RUB
11.9
Jan 26, 2015
Jan 25, 2016
Jan 18, 2021
BB+/Ba1/-
Rosneft-21bo
100.00
-240
0.9
50,000
RUB
11.9
Jan 26, 2015
Jan 25, 2016
Jan 18, 2021
BB+/Ba1/-
Rosneft-22bo
100.00
-240
0.9
50,000
RUB
11.9
Jan 26, 2015
Jan 25, 2016
Jan 18, 2021
BB+/Ba1/-
Rosneft-23bo
100.00
-240
0.9
50,000
RUB
11.9
Jan 26, 2015
Jan 25, 2016
Jan 18, 2021
BB+/Ba1/-
Rosneft-24bo
101.90
25,000
RUB
17.4
Dec 11, 2014
Dec 7, 2017
Dec 3, 2020
BB+/Ba1/-
Rosneft-25bo
100.00
-240
0.9
25,000
RUB
11.9
Jan 26, 2015
Jan 25, 2016
Jan 18, 2021
BB+/Ba1/-
Rosneft-26bo
100.00
-240
0.9
25,000
RUB
11.9
Jan 26, 2015
Jan 25, 2016
Jan 18, 2021
BB+/Ba1/-
TransGazService-1bo
100.00
-527
0.7
10.5
Transneft-1
99.50
Transneft-1bo
100.00
Transneft-2
100.03
Transneft-2bo
99.89
Transneft-3
98.70
Research Department
AMT. OUTST.
-235
-
279
18
+46
2.3
+19
+15
-477
-428
+64
1.0
0.9
5,000
RUB
35,000
RUB
17,000
RUB
35,000
RUB
17,000
RUB
65,000
RUB
20
PLACEMENT
12.5
Nov 14, 2014
Nov 13, 2015
Nov 8, 2019
-/-/-
May 25, 2009
May 20, 2015
May 13, 2019
BB+/Ba1/-
Dec 21, 2015
BB+/Ba1/-
Oct 1, 2019
BB+/Ba1/-
Dec 21, 2015
BB+/Ba1/-
Sep 18, 2019
BB+/Ba1/-
Dec 24, 2012
Oct 13, 2009
12.5
Oct 8, 2015
Dec 24, 2012
Sep 30, 2009
Sep 23, 2015
Copyright © 2003-2015
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
APRIL 3, 2015
INDICATIVE
ISSUE VOLUME
ISSUE
Transneft-3bo
DUR
CLOSE PRICE
CHG, BPS
Z-SPD (SWAP)
CHG, BPS
98.00
+50
-6
-42
1.0
Yamal SPG-1
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
DATES
CPN
AMT. OUTST.
CCY
25,000
RUB
1,207
USD
RATING
PLACEMENT
PUT/CALL
11.0
Oct 22, 2014
Apr 20, 2016
3.381
Feb 19, 2015
MATURITY
Oct 9, 2024
BB+/Ba1/-
Feb 19, 2030
-/-/-
RUSSIA EUROBONDS
Alliance Oil 20
55.71
-22
2,042
+18
3.9
500
USD
7.0
Apr 24, 2013
May 4, 2020
-/-/-
Borets 18
77.52
+215
1,520
-91
3.0
420
USD
7.625
Sep 11, 2013
Sep 26, 2018
BB-/B1/-
EDC 20
84.29
+123
733
-32
4.3
600
USD
4.875
Apr 11, 2013
Apr 17, 2020
BB+/-/BB
Gazprom 15 4.3
100.38
+36
318
-59
0.6
700
USD
4.3
Nov 5, 2014
Nov 12, 2015
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 15 5.092
100.94
+55
310
-87
0.6
1,000
USD
5.092
Nov 29, 2010
Nov 29, 2015
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 15E.JUN
100.37
-2
328
-34
0.2
1,000
EUR
5.875
Jun 1, 2005
Jun 1, 2015
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 16 MAY
101.56
+55
283
-51
1.1
1,000
USD
4.95
Nov 17, 2011
May 23, 2016
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 16 NOV
103.44
+140
324
-89
1.5
1,350
USD
6.212
Nov 22, 2006
Nov 22, 2016
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 17E 3.755
99.09
+118
413
-64
1.9
1,400
EUR
3.755
Jul 11, 2012
Mar 15, 2017
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 17E 5.136
101.64
+147
412
-79
1.9
500
EUR
5.136
Nov 22, 2006
Mar 22, 2017
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 17E.NOV
102.35
+194
433
-80
2.4
500
EUR
5.44
Mar 7, 2007
Nov 2, 2017
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 18
106.06
+193
485
-68
2.6
1,100
USD
8.146
Apr 11, 2008
Apr 11, 2018
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 18E 3.7
97.48
+268
438
-89
3.1
900
EUR
3.7
Jul 17, 2013
Jul 25, 2018
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 18E 6.605
106.02
+152
419
-56
2.7
1,200
EUR
6.605
Oct 25, 2007
Feb 13, 2018
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 19
110.33
+253
503
-68
3.4
2,250
USD
9.25
Apr 23, 2009
Apr 23, 2019
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 19C
87.59
+143
587
-47
4.2
500
CHF
2.85
Oct 16, 2013
Oct 25, 2019
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 20
90.62
+225
466
-57
4.4
800
USD
3.85
Jan 30, 2013
Feb 6, 2020
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 20E
94.33
+234
444
-54
4.6
1,000
EUR
3.389
Mar 13, 2013
Mar 20, 2020
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 20P
94.10
+328
526
-84
4.8
500
GBP
5.338
Sep 18, 2013
Sep 25, 2020
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 21
96.90
+305
507
-67
4.9
600
USD
5.999
Nov 17, 2011
Jan 23, 2021
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 21E
93.96
+252
448
-51
5.4
750
EUR
3.6
Feb 19, 2014
Feb 26, 2021
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 22 4.95
91.74
+278
463
-53
6.1
1,000
USD
4.95
Jul 11, 2012
Jul 19, 2022
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 22 6.51
99.13
+347
497
-67
5.6
1,300
USD
6.51
Mar 7, 2007
Mar 7, 2022
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 25E
97.56
+373
414
-49
8.2
500
EUR
4.364
Mar 13, 2013
Mar 21, 2025
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 28
85.46
+320
458
-47
9.3
900
USD
4.95
Jan 30, 2013
Feb 6, 2028
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 34
110.79
+396
541
-44
9.8
1,200
USD
8.625
Apr 28, 2004
Apr 28, 2034
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 37
102.00
+548
491
-58
11.3
1,250
USD
7.288
Aug 16, 2007
Aug 16, 2037
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Lukoil 15
99.26
+41
624
-142
0.2
1,500
USD
2.625
Dec 16, 2010
Jun 16, 2015
BBB-/-/-
Lukoil 17
104.38
+152
336
-71
2.0
500
USD
6.356
Jun 7, 2007
Jun 7, 2017
BBB-/Ba1/BBB-
Lukoil 18
94.04
+143
448
-49
2.9
1,500
USD
3.416
Apr 17, 2013
Apr 24, 2018
BBB-/Ba1/BBB-
Lukoil 19
104.20
+211
479
-52
3.9
600
USD
7.25
Nov 5, 2009
Nov 5, 2019
BBB-/Ba1/BBB-
Lukoil 20
98.86
+256
481
-57
4.7
1,000
USD
6.125
Nov 9, 2010
Nov 9, 2020
BBB-/Ba1/BBB-
Research Department
21
Copyright © 2003-2015
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
APRIL 3, 2015
INDICATIVE
ISSUE VOLUME
ISSUE
DUR
CLOSE PRICE
CHG, BPS
Z-SPD (SWAP)
CHG, BPS
Lukoil 22
100.92
+251
477
-47
Lukoil 23
87.64
+298
474
-55
Novatek 16
101.01
+48
352
-55
Novatek 17R
90.35
+53
189
-23
Novatek 21
95.55
+356
598
Novatek 22
81.72
+366
RosNeft 17
95.81
RosNeft 22
83.21
SibNeft 18E
SibNeft 22
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
DATES
CPN
RATING
AMT. OUTST.
CCY
PLACEMENT
PUT/CALL
MATURITY
5.7
500
USD
6.656
Jun 7, 2007
Jun 7, 2022
BBB-/Ba1/BBB-
6.6
1,500
USD
4.563
Apr 17, 2013
Apr 24, 2023
BBB-/Ba1/BBB-
0.9
600
USD
5.326
Mar 2, 2011
Mar 2, 2016
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
1.8
14,000
RUB
7.75
Feb 12, 2013
Feb 21, 2017
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
-81
4.8
650
USD
6.604
Feb 3, 2011
Feb 3, 2021
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
581
-75
6.3
1,000
USD
4.422
Dec 6, 2012
Dec 13, 2022
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
+157
437
-75
2.1
1,000
USD
3.149
Nov 29, 2012
Jun 3, 2017
BB+/Ba1/-
+416
550
-88
6.0
2,000
USD
4.199
Nov 29, 2012
Jun 3, 2022
BB+/Ba1/-
92.99
+84
535
-28
2.9
750
EUR
2.933
Apr 18, 2013
Apr 26, 2018
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
83.05
+366
560
-75
6.3
1,500
USD
4.375
Sep 10, 2012
Sep 19, 2022
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
SibNeft 23
89.09
+314
591
-58
6.6
1,500
USD
6.0
Nov 20, 2013
Nov 27, 2023
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
TNK 16
102.58
+57
466
-48
1.2
1,000
USD
7.5
Jul 18, 2006
Jul 18, 2016
BB+/Ba1/-
TNK 17
101.69
+128
488
-68
1.9
800
USD
6.625
Mar 19, 2007
Mar 20, 2017
BB+/Ba1/-
TNK 18
102.75
+176
578
-64
2.7
1,100
USD
7.875
Oct 10, 2007
Mar 13, 2018
BB+/Ba1/-
TNK 20
97.59
+211
643
-54
4.1
500
USD
7.25
Feb 2, 2010
Feb 2, 2020
BB+/Ba1/-
TransNeft 18
107.45
+266
505
-86
2.9
1,050
USD
8.7
Aug 7, 2008
Aug 7, 2018
BB+/Ba1/-
1.0
1,749
USD
5.75
Dec 15, 2005
Dec 15, 2015
-/-/-
1.3
850
EUR
6.375
Jul 22, 2004
Aug 5, 2016
BBB+/A3/BBB+
125
USD
10.61
Jul 20, 1999
Aug 15, 2017
A/A3/A+
1,000
EUR
5.5
Sep 30, 2009
Jan 9, 2017
BBB+/A3/BBB+
PEERS COMPARISON
Mexican Petroleum 15F 5.75
104.65
Mexican Petroleum 16EF
107.91
77
-16
21
-1
Mexican Petroleum 17.1
Mexican Petroleum 17E 5.5
108.36
-12
57
-0
1.7
Mexican Petroleum 17E 5.779
200
EUR
5.779
Aug 6, 2009
Nov 6, 2017
-/A3/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 17F.2
125.14
145
7.9
125
USD
10.61
Aug 15, 1999
Aug 15, 2017
A/A3/A+
Mexican Petroleum 18.1
115.73
262
2.7
234
USD
9.15
Dec 4, 1998
Nov 15, 2018
A/A3/A+
Mexican Petroleum 18.2
124.59
29
7.2
234
USD
9.15
Aug 15, 1999
Nov 15, 2018
A/A3/A+
Mexican Petroleum 18.3
127.60
205
5.4
340
USD
9.25
Sep 30, 2005
Mar 30, 2018
BBB+/A3/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 18.4
110.11
+30
109
-10
2.7
2,484
USD
5.75
Sep 1, 2008
Mar 1, 2018
BBB+/A3/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 19
102.13
+30
126
-7
3.6
500
USD
3.125
Jan 15, 2014
Jan 23, 2019
BBB+/A3/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 19C
108.03
-40
40
+2
3.8
300
CHF
2.5
Mar 12, 2012
Apr 10, 2019
BBB+/A3/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 19F
120.10
+33
145
-9
3.5
1,937
USD
8.0
May 3, 2009
May 3, 2019
BBB+/A3/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 20
114.17
-9
142
+1
4.4
991
USD
6.0
Aug 30, 2010
Mar 5, 2020
BBB+/A3/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 21.1
108.70
5.2
2,393
USD
5.5
Jul 13, 2010
Jan 21, 2021
BBB+/A3/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 21.2
110.75
5.0
2,962
USD
5.5
Jul 21, 2010
Jan 21, 2021
BBB+/A3/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 22.2
99.75
36
3.9
320
USD
2.0
Jun 26, 2012
Dec 20, 2022
-/-/-
Mexican Petroleum 22.3
99.46
39
3.9
320
USD
1.95
Jun 28, 2012
Dec 20, 2022
-/-/-
Research Department
226
+103
184
-20
22
Copyright © 2003-2015
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
APRIL 3, 2015
INDICATIVE
ISSUE VOLUME
ISSUE
DUR
CLOSE PRICE
CHG, BPS
Z-SPD (SWAP)
+89
201
CHG, BPS
52
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
DATES
CPN
RATING
AMT. OUTST.
CCY
PLACEMENT
PUT/CALL
MATURITY
4.0
320
USD
1.7
Jul 17, 2012
Dec 20, 2022
-/-/-
5.9
2,091
USD
4.875
Jul 23, 2012
Jan 24, 2022
BBB+/A3/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 22.4
98.81
Mexican Petroleum 22.5
106.88
Mexican Petroleum 22F.1
120.20
5.6
970
USD
8.625
Feb 1, 2003
Feb 1, 2022
BBB+/A3/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 22P
130.88
-50
183
-4
5.6
350
GBP
8.25
May 20, 2009
Jun 2, 2022
BBB+/A3/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 23 3.5
96.57
+41
219
-9
6.8
2,100
USD
3.5
Jan 23, 2013
Jan 30, 2023
BBB+/A3/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 23F 8.625
121.53
355
6.5
225
USD
8.625
Dec 1, 2005
Dec 1, 2023
BBB+/A3/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 24
101.00
275
7.4
1,000
USD
4.875
Jul 11, 2013
Jan 18, 2024
BBB+/A3/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 25E
126.78
8.1
1,000
EUR
5.5
Feb 15, 2005
Feb 24, 2025
BBB+/A3/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 27.1
128.00
400
7.9
476
USD
9.5
Sep 18, 1997
Sep 15, 2027
BBB+/A3/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 27.2
133.84
358
8.0
790
USD
9.5
Sep 15, 2005
Sep 15, 2027
BBB+/A3/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 35.1
115.18
11.8
2,291
USD
6.625
Dec 15, 2005
Jun 15, 2035
BBB+/A3/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 35.2
110.44
11.7
1,000
USD
6.625
Jun 15, 2010
Jun 15, 2035
BBB+/A3/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 38
113.75
+126
332
-16
12.6
491
USD
6.625
Dec 15, 2008
Jun 15, 2038
BBB+/A3/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 41
113.96
+187
322
-20
13.4
2,499
USD
6.5
Jun 2, 2011
Jun 2, 2041
BBB+/A3/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 44.1
101.49
+149
310
-18
14.7
1,748
USD
5.5
Jun 26, 2012
Jun 27, 2044
BBB+/A3/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 44.2
100.67
+95
316
-14
14.7
1,000
USD
5.5
Jun 26, 2012
Jun 27, 2044
-/A3/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 45
111.48
+64
330
-12
14.3
3,000
USD
6.375
Jan 15, 2014
Jan 23, 2045
BBB+/A3/BBB+
Petrobras 16 3.875
99.56
+199
385
-247
0.8
2,500
USD
3.875
Jan 20, 2011
Jan 27, 2016
BBB-/Ba2/BBB-
Petrobras 16 6.125
102.01
+334
397
-232
1.5
BBB-/Ba2/BBB-
-16
359
-48
+105
189
317
+4
-15
343
Petrobras 16Y
Petrobras 17
899
USD
6.125
Sep 29, 2006
Oct 6, 2016
35,000
JPY
2.15
Sep 27, 2006
Sep 27, 2016
-/Ba2/BBB-
Feb 6, 2017
BBB-/Ba2/BBB-
95.29
+240
546
-139
1.8
1,750
USD
3.5
Feb 1, 2012
Petrobras 18 5.875
98.29
+303
549
-115
2.7
1,750
USD
5.875
Oct 29, 2007
Mar 1, 2018
BBB-/Ba2/BBB-
Petrobras 18 8.375
105.38
+362
548
-110
3.2
750
USD
8.375
Dec 3, 2003
Dec 10, 2018
BBB-/Ba2/BBB-
Petrobras 18E 2.75
91.91
+216
588
-88
2.7
1,500
EUR
2.75
Jan 7, 2014
Jan 15, 2018
BBB-/Ba2/BBB-
Petrobras 18E 4,875
96.77
+255
598
-99
2.8
1,250
EUR
4.875
Dec 1, 2011
Mar 7, 2018
BBB-/Ba2/BBB-
Petrobras 19
103.71
+343
551
-99
3.5
2,750
USD
7.875
Feb 4, 2009
Mar 15, 2019
BBB-/Ba2/BBB-
Petrobras 19E
90.90
+270
569
-81
3.8
1,300
EUR
3.25
Sep 24, 2012
Apr 1, 2019
BBB-/Ba2/BBB-
Petrobras 20
95.05
+277
554
-71
4.2
2,500
USD
5.75
Oct 23, 2009
Jan 20, 2020
BBB-/Ba2/BBB-
Petrobras 21
92.66
+304
534
-69
5.0
5,250
USD
5.375
Jan 20, 2011
Jan 27, 2021
BBB-/Ba2/BBB-
Petrobras 21E
90.29
+306
547
-67
5.2
750
EUR
3.75
Jan 7, 2014
Jan 14, 2021
BBB-/Ba2/BBB-
Petrobras 22E
99.91
+287
551
-52
5.9
600
EUR
5.875
Dec 1, 2011
Mar 7, 2022
BBB-/Ba2/BBB-
Petrobras 23E
90.66
+390
520
-64
7.1
700
EUR
4.25
Sep 24, 2012
Oct 2, 2023
BBB-/Ba2/BBB-
Petrobras 25E
92.56
+405
524
-60
7.9
800
EUR
4.75
Jan 7, 2014
Jan 14, 2025
BBB-/Ba2/BBB-
Petrobras 26P
88.23
+299
613
-54
8.2
700
GBP
6.25
Dec 5, 2011
Dec 14, 2026
BBB-/Ba2/BBB-
Petrobras 29P
84.43
+249
536
-42
9.7
450
GBP
5.375
Sep 24, 2012
Oct 1, 2029
BBB-/Ba2/BBB-
Research Department
23
Copyright © 2003-2015
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
APRIL 3, 2015
INDICATIVE
ISSUE VOLUME
ISSUE
DUR
CLOSE PRICE
CHG, BPS
Z-SPD (SWAP)
CHG, BPS
Petrobras 34P
85.80
+282
631
-44
Petrobras 40
93.03
+390
529
-46
Petrobras 41
91.52
+390
528
KazMunaiGaz 18
111.35
+103
KazMunaiGaz 20
104.60
+23
KazMunaiGaz 21
102.47
KazMunaiGaz 23
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
DATES
CPN
RATING
AMT. OUTST.
CCY
PLACEMENT
PUT/CALL
MATURITY
10.5
600
GBP
6.625
Jan 7, 2014
Jan 16, 2034
BBB-/Ba2/BBB-
11.6
1,500
USD
6.875
Oct 23, 2009
Jan 20, 2040
BBB-/Ba2/BBB-
-46
11.8
2,250
USD
6.75
Jan 20, 2011
Jan 27, 2041
BBB-/Ba2/BBB-
415
-33
2.8
1,600
USD
9.125
Jul 2, 2008
Jul 2, 2018
BB+/Baa3/BBB
446
-6
4.3
1,500
USD
7.0
May 5, 2010
May 5, 2020
BB+/Baa3/BBB
+13
427
-4
4.9
1,250
USD
6.375
Nov 10, 2010
Apr 9, 2021
BB+/Baa3/BBB
90.27
+41
410
-9
6.7
1,000
USD
4.4
Apr 24, 2013
Apr 30, 2023
BB+/Baa3/BBB
KazMunaiGaz 43
84.20
+89
480
-16
12.7
2,000
USD
5.75
Apr 24, 2013
Apr 30, 2043
BB+/Baa3/BBB
KazTransGaz 17
99.51
-15
578
+11
2.0
600
USD
6.375
May 14, 2007
May 14, 2017
BB+/Baa3/BBB-
Zhaikmunai 15
105.34
0.5
450
USD
10.5
Oct 19, 2010
Oct 19, 2014
Oct 19, 2015
B+/-/-
Zhaikmunai 19 6.375
87.05
+60
929
-16
3.4
400
USD
6.375
Feb 10, 2014
Feb 14, 2017
Feb 14, 2019
B+/B2/-
Zhaikmunai 19 7.125
87.03
+45
938
-11
3.8
560
USD
7.125
Nov 2, 2012
Nov 13, 2019
B+/B2/-
Georgian OGC 17
101.25
+36
539
-16
1.9
250
USD
6.875
May 9, 2012
May 16, 2017
B+/-/BB-
SOCAR 17
102.52
+12
322
-6
1.8
500
USD
5.45
Feb 2, 2012
Feb 9, 2017
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
SOCAR 23
93.14
+23
403
-6
6.6
1,000
USD
4.75
Mar 1, 2013
Mar 13, 2023
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
CIS EUROBONDS
Research Department
-8
24
Copyright © 2003-2015
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
APRIL 3, 2015
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
DIVIDEND YIELDS VS. SENIOR BONDS YTM
GAZPROM
Bond Yield Gazprom 19
Jan-15
Jul-14
Oct-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Apr-13
Oct-12
Jan-13
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Apr-10
Oct-09
Jan-10
Jul-09
Apr-09
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Dividend Yield
LUKOIL
12
10
8
6
4
2
Bond Yield Lukoil 18
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
0
Dividend Yield
NOVATEK
Bond Yield Novatek 21
Feb-15
Nov-14
Aug-14
May-14
Feb-14
Nov-13
Aug-13
May-13
Feb-13
Nov-12
Aug-12
May-12
Feb-12
Nov-11
Aug-11
May-11
Feb-11
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Dividend Yield
ROSNEFT
Bond Yield Rosneft 17
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Dividend Yield
Source: Bloomberg, Gazprombank estimates
Research Department
25
Copyright © 2003-2015
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
APRIL 3, 2015
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
CALENDAR OF EVENTS
09.04.2015
EDC: US GAAP results
24.04.2015
NOVATEK: 2014 AGM
27.04.2015
C.A.T. Oil : IFRS results
FY14
30.04.2015
Gazprom: IFRS results
FY14
30.04.2015
Surgutneftegas: IFRS results
FY14
05.05.2015
NOVATEK: 2014 dividends record date
15.05.2015
Deadline for 1Q15 RAS results submission
Research Department
FY14
FY14
26
Copyright © 2003-2015
Gazprombank (Joint-Stock Company)
HQ: 16/1 Nametkina St., Moscow 117420, Russia. Office: 7 Koroviy val St.
Research Department
+7 (495) 983 18 00
EQUITY SALES
FIXED INCOME SALES
+7 (495) 988 23 75
+7 (495) 983 18 80
EQUITY TRADING
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