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Medium-term prospects
for agricultural markets
2004 - 2011
Update
for EU-25
European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
1
Structure of the presentation
Introduction
• Analytical approach
– Methodology
– Main assumptions
Main results
• Medium-term prospects for the EU-25
– Cereals
– Oilseeds
– Meats and eggs
– Milk and main dairy products
European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
2
Methodological approach
Type of models
Results
• DG AGRI market projections carried out using a
recursive dynamic partial equilibrium model and a
comparative static model (ESIM)
• Model output: balance sheets for main commodities,
market prices
• Detailed results for
– Old (EU-15)
– New (EU-N10) Member States
for main commodities/variables
European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
3
Methodological approach
Main
assumptions
• Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture maintained
constant
• Favourable, though moderate world agricultural market
outlook
• Return to modest economic and population growth
• $/euro exchange rate stable at 1.1 over the medium-term
• By 2011 direct payments are assumed to be 90%
decoupled (milk 100 %, arable crops 93 %, beef 78 %,
sheep 73 %)
European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
4
Results for the crops
• Favourable outlook for cereals markets
• Only moderately increasing domestic use due to
– less expansive growth of livestock sector
– gain in feeding efficiency in new Member States
• Transport costs separate the maize markets in the EU
– increasing use of maize for feed
– increasing exports of maize
• Loss of competitiveness of barley as feed grain and
moderately increasing public barley stock
• Developments depend on world grain markets and
currency environment
European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
5
Broadly balanced cereal market over the medium-term
Production and consumption, 1995 - 2011 (mio t)
300
E U -1 5
E U -2 5
P ro d u ctio n
250
200
N o n -fe e d u se
150
100
50
F e e d u se
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
6
Positive medium-term outlook stabilises cereal markets
Cereal trade and stocks, 1995 - 2011 (mio t)
60
E U -1 5
E U -2 5
P riva te sto cks
50
40
30
E xp o rts
P u b lic sto cks
20
Im p o rts
10
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
7
Cereal markets : limited build up in cereal stocks
Total public stocks, 1995 - 2011 (mio t)
22
E U -1 5
E U -2 5
20
18
co a rse g ra in e xp o rts
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1995
1996
1997
wheat
1998
1999
2000
2001
b a rle y
2002
2003
2004
rye
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
m a ize
European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
8
Good medium-term perspectives on soft wheat markets
Soft wheat production, domestic use and trade, 1995 - 2011 (mio t)
E U -1 5
E U -2 5
140
120
p ro d u ctio n
100
n o n -fe e d u se
80
60
40
e xp o rts
fe e d u se
im p o rts
20
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
9
Barley: decline of competitiveness
Barley production, domestic use, trade and public stocks, 1995 - 2011 (mio t)
70
E U -1 5
E U -2 5
p ro d u ctio n
60
50
40
n o n -fe e d u se
30
e xp o rts
p u b lic sto cks
fe e d u se
20
im p o rts
10
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
10
Maize: segmented markets, increasing use and exports
Maize production, domestic use, and trade 1995 - 2011 (mio t)
60
E U -1 5
E U -2 5
p ro d u c tio n
50
n o n -fe e d u s e
40
30
fe e d u s e
20
e xp o rts
im p o rts
10
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
11
Rye: returning to stable market conditions
Rye production, domestic use, trade and public stocks 1995 - 2011 (mio t)
12
E U -1 5
E U -2 5
p ro d u ctio n
10
8
n o n -fe e d u se
6
fe e d u se
4
e xp o rts
im p o rts
2
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
0 1 sto cks
2002
p u 2b0lic
2003
2004
2005
2006
European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
12
Positive medium-term perspectives for the oilseed markets
Market developments for the oilseed sector 1995 - 2011
45
E U -1 5
E U -2 5
40
35
30
25
P ro d u c tio n
20
15
10
D o m e s tic u s e
5
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
13
Results for the meat and dairy sector
• Favourable outlook for the meat sector
– Return to more normal situation after market disruptions due
to animal diseases (2nd BSE crisis, FMD, avian flu)
– EU-25 beef consumption higher than production in 2003 for
the first time in 20 years (and throughout the forecast period)
– Pork and poultry production to keep growing over the medium
term, with increased trade flows between old and new
Member States
• Improvement in EU dairy markets
– Milk production in EU-25 to increase slightly in line with quota
increases
– EU-25 butter and SMP market equilibrium to gradually
improve, with decreasing production and stocks
– Cheese production in the EU-25 to keep its sustained growth
European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
14
EU beef demand to exceed production over the medium-term
EU Production, Consumption, Trade and Stocks (mio t)
10
9
E U -2 5
E U -1 5
E U -1 2
2 ,5
P ro d u c tio n
2 ,0
7
C o n s u m p tio n
6
1 ,5
5
E x p o rts
1 ,0
4
3
E n d in g s to c k s
Im p o rts
0 ,5
2
1
0 ,0
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
15
T ra d e , S to c k s
P ro d u c tio n , C o n s u m p tio n
8
EU pig meat sector to continue to expand over the medium-term
EU Production, Consumption and Trade (mio t)
6
30
E U -1 2
E U -2 5
E U -1 5
5
P ro d u c tio n
4
20
C o n s u m p tio n
15
3
10
2
1
5
E x p o rts
Im p o rts
0
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
16
T ra d e
P ro d u c tio n , C o n s u m p tio n
25
EU poultry production to recover after avian flu in the Netherlands
EU Production, Consumption and Trade (mio t)
3 ,0
15
E U -1 5
E U -1 2
E U -2 5
2 ,5
P ro d u c tio n
2 ,0
C o n s u m p tio n
9
1 ,5
E x p o rts
6
1 ,0
3
0 ,5
Im p o rts
0 ,0
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
17
T ra d e
P ro d u c tio n , C o n s u m p tio n
12
EU sheep/goat meat sector only slightly affected by enlargement
EU Production, Consumption and Trade (mio t)
1 ,0
2 ,0
E U -1 5
E U -1 2
0 ,5
1 ,0
P ro d u c tio n
0 ,5
Im p o rts
E x p o rts
0 ,0
0 ,0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
18
T ra d e
C o n s u m p tio n
1 ,5
P ro d u c tio n , C o n s u m p tio n
E U -2 5
Milk quotas to constrain EU milk production
while growing milk yields reduce dairy cow herd
EU Milk Production, Deliveries to dairies, Dairy Cows
40
160
E U -1 5
E U -1 2
E U -2 5
35
140
120
30
M ilk D e live rie s
25
100
D a iry c o w h e rd
80
20
60
15
40
10
20
5
0
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
19
N u m b e r o f d a iry c o w s (m io h e a d s )
M ilk p ro d u c tio n a n d d e liv e rie s (m io t)
M ilk P ro d u c tio n
EU butter balance to improve over the medium-term
EU Production, Consumption, Trade and Stocks
1 ,0
2 ,5
E U -1 2
E U -1 5
E U -2 5
P ro d u c tio n
P ro d u c tio n , C o n s u m p tio n
1 ,5
0 ,6
C o n s u m p tio n
E x p o rts
1 ,0
0 ,4
Im p o rts
0 ,5
0 ,2
S to c k s
0 ,0
0 ,0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
20
T ra d e , S to c k s
0 ,8
2 ,0
EU cheese market keeps its steady growth over the medium term
EU Production, Consumption and Trade
2 ,0
1 0 ,0
E U -2 5
E U -1 5
E U -1 2
1 ,8
9 ,0
1 ,6
7 ,0
1 ,4
6 ,0
1 ,2
C o n s u m p tio n
5 ,0
1 ,0
E x p o rts
4 ,0
0 ,8
3 ,0
0 ,6
0 ,4
2 ,0
Im p o rts
European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
11
20
10
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
20
99
19
98
19
97
19
96
19
95
19
19
19
19
19
94
0 ,0
93
0 ,0
92
0 ,2
91
1 ,0
21
T ra d e
P ro d u c tio n , C o n s u m p tio n
P ro d u c tio n
8 ,0
EU Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) market to shrink over the medium term
EU Production, Consumption, Trade and Stocks
1 ,0
1 ,6
E U -1 2
E U -1 5
E U -2 5
1 ,4
P ro d u c tio n
0 ,8
1 ,0
0 ,6
0 ,8
C o n s u m p tio n
E x p o rts
0 ,4
0 ,6
0 ,4
0 ,2
Im p o rts
S to c k s
0 ,2
0 ,0
0 ,0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
22
T ra d e , S to c k s
P ro d u c tio n , C o n s u m p tio n
1 ,2
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