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Question?
• Which lock gates in
division present the
greatest potential
risk to health and
safety and therefore
should be repaired
first?
Step One: Criteria
• Assume criteria
equally important (or
not).
• Reflect most
important aspects of
evaluating risk.
• Define H, M, L
scenarios for each
criterion.
• Use three or four
evidence-based
criteria.
G ATES
C rite ria # 1 : A g e
H = T w e n ty a n d a b o ve Y e a rs o f A g e .
M = T e n to T w e n ty Y e a rs o f A g e .
L = Z e ro to T e n Y e a rs o f A g e .
C rite ria # 2 : F re q u e n c y o f U s e .
H = D a ily U s e -a p p ro x im a te ly 3 6 5 tim e s a ye a r.
M = G re a t th a n o n e a n d le s s th a n 3 6 5 tim e s a ye a r.
L = A n n u a l u s e -O n c e a Y e a r.
C rite ria # 3 : C o n s e q u e n c e o f F a ilu re .
H = L o s s o f L ife a n d /o r P ro p e rty.
M = S tru c tu re D a m a g e .
L = M in im a l L o s s o f P ro p e rty a n d /o r D a m a g e .
Step Two: Rating
• Use expert judgment to
critically evaluate the
available information
• Develop estimates for
each “hazard” against
criteria
• Use letters or numbers
but numbers do not
represent an absolute
measurement of risk
only a relative means
for comparison
Gate
Criteria 1
Criteria 2
Criteria 3
Knightsbridge
H
L
M
Steadly
H
M
M
Redwood
M
H
L
Jackflash
M
H
L
Cantget
L
L
L
Roughjustice
H
M
L
IORR
L
M
H
19
L
H
L
Step Three: All Possible
Combinations
• Greatest Risk
Least Risk
HHH
HHM, HMH, MHH
HHL, HLH, LHH, HMM, MMH, MHM
HLM, MHL, HML, LMH, MLH, MMM, LHM
HLL, LHL, LLH, MML, LMM, MLM
MLL, LML, LLM
LLL
This is for equally weighted criteria. Unequal weights yield different listings.
Step Four: Rank Subjectively
• Establish rank
according to
descending
relative risk
• Identify subjective
clusters.
Gate
Rating
Ranking
Steadly
HMM
Greatest Risk
Roughjustice
HML
Jackflash
MHL
Knightsbridge
HLM
Redwood
MHL
IORR
LMH
19
LHL
Cantget
LLL
Moderate
Risk
Least Risk
Step Five: Add Criteria?
• Look at rankings, do they make sense?
• Have you thought properly about this
issue?
• If they do not, perhaps you did not
consider all the most relevant criteria
• A new criteria may be added to more
accurately reflect the assessors
rationale for ranking
Step Five: Add Criteria? (cont)
• Suppose the following was added to our
example
• Criterion 4: Cost of emergency repair
– H = Major disruptions to navigation or
power, much higher costs to repair
– M = Much higher costs to repair
– L = Same as scheduled repair
Step Six: New Ratings
Gates
Criteria #4 Rating
New Combined
Ranking
Steadly
H
HMMH
Jackflash
H
MHLH
Knightsbridge
H
HLMH
Redwood
M
MHLM
IORR
M
LMHM
19
H
LHLH
Roughjustice
L
HMLL
Cantget
H
LLLH
Step Seven: New Ranking
Gates
New Combined
Ranking
Criteria #4 Rating
Steadly
HMMH
Greatest Risk
Jackflash
MHLH
Greatest Risk
Knightsbridge
HLMH
Greatest Risk
Redwood
MHLM
Moderate Risk
IORR
LMHM
Moderate Risk
19
LHLH
Moderate Risk
Roughjustice
HMLL
Moderate Risk
Cantget
LLLH
Least Risk
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