Wireless Tutorial
Part 3
Mobile Broadband
New Applications and
New Business Models
Fanny Mlinarsky
octoScope
Brough Turner
Dialogic
Agenda
10:30 – 12:00 noon
Our G-enealogy – History and Evolution of
Mobile Radio
Lunch
1:00 – 2:00
2:00 – 2:45
The IEEE’s Wireless Ethernet Keeps Going
and Growing
4G Tutorial: Vive la Différence?
Break
3:00 – 3:45
Mobile Broadband - New Applications and
New Business Models
Break
4:00 – 4:45
Tutorial: White Spaces and Beyond
The Internet is the killer platform
• Mobile Internet access
driving 3G data usage
• Future business models
an open question
– Walled garden ?
– Advertising ?
– Other 2-sided business
models ?
Leading Apps don’t depend on 3G
• Voice ― still the largest revenue source
– Bar none!
• SMS ― 2nd largest mobile revenue source
– Voice SMS, Picture mail & Video mail coming
on strong
Content !
Mobile TV
Mobile social networking
Mobile Content
• More music sold on-line than off-line in
both China and Korea
• Ringback tones
– Created by SK Telecom in Korea in 2002;
30% adoption in just 9 months
• Ringback tones today
– Korea: ~55% adoption
– China: ~50% adoption
Any G,
1, 2, 3 or Fixed
Japanese Music Revenues
Source:
Infinity Venture Partners
Mobile TV
70% of new handsets in Japan
are Mobile TV enabled
Only Japan and Korea have
multi-million Mobile TV subscriber bases
Broadcast services independent of 3G
2.5G
Mobile Social Networking
Mobile launch:
2000
2004
2006
2007
6M
10 M
3M
~$100M
~$35M
($50M)
Mobile users:
50 M
Profit (USD):
$225M
Source: Benjamin Joffe, Plus Eight Star Ltd.
“3G” Services






3G-324M Video telephony Limited adoption
Location-based services Bypassed !
Push-to-Talk (VoIP w/o QoS) Limited adoption
Rich presence (instant messaging) No traction
Fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) Limited adoption
IP Multimedia Services (w/ QoS)
• Video sharing (conversational video over IP) Limited adoption

Converged “All IP” networks – the Vision
Still waiting …
Mobile operators miss the boat
Location-based services (LBS)
• Required in US for 911 services
• Fully implemented (after multiple delays)
• Not made attractive for 3rd parties
Result:
• All US location-based services based on
alternate location approaches
– GPS, Cell ID, Navizon, Skyhook
Mobile operators slow the boat
Billing Services
• Mobile operators have efficient billing systems &
own the customer relationship
• DoCoMo showed (I-Mode in 1999) the enormous
potential of affordable billing services
• Yet billing still offered only via premium rate #s
Result:
• 3rd party content is paid for via 3rd party billing
systems or (multiple) premium rate SMS(s)
Mobile Broadband Access
US prospects for “over the top”
access to the open Internet
Breaking Oligopolies
• Four or more viable competitors is what it
takes; more than four and it can be rapid
– Many examples in mobile voice telephony
from around the world
• 2008: Three established US 3G operators
– AT&T Mobility, Verizon Wireless & Sprint PCS
– Flat rate data plans expensive, but appearing
Additional US 3G Competition
• T-Mobile USA (well financed)
– Paid $4.2B for AWS spectrum in 2006 and
committed additional $2.7B for initial rollout
– Currently spending almost $1B per quarter,
with 3G at 1/3rd of cell sites as of 3Q08
• Clearwire (partially financed)
– WiMAX on Clearwire and Sprint spectrum
Expect affordable flat rate
mobile broadband in the US in 2010
Subscribers & Applications
• Historically, only applications pre-installed
on handsets had any traction
– “On-deck” applications and content offers
• Apple iPhone application store is on-deck
– Provides access to 100K+ applications
• Andriod store, Adobe, Nokia initiatives, …
Application stores are the new “deck”
Handset diversity
Remaining obstacle to widespread
deployment of 3rd party applications
IMS inter-operability bad enough
Today’s handsets more diverse
• Browsers – Openwave, Opera, Safari, …
– Using: WebKit, Netfront, Presto, …
• Runtime environments as several levels
– Adobe AIR, .Net/Silverlight, Brew, JavaME, …
• Operating systems
– Symbian, WinMobile, Android, OpenMoko…
• Hardware capabilities
– CPUs, supported codecs, screen size, …
Mobile Software Frameworks
Source: Andrea Constantinou, ©2008 VisionMobile Research
Important trends
• App stores!
– Easier distribution; Easier discovery
• More and more smart phones
• Richer browser capabilities
– Approaching PC browser functionality
• New access to device capabilities
– User data (contacts, logs, …), events
(incoming calls) and core functionality
Uniquely Mobile Internet
• Phase 1 – cut down web, e.g. WAP
• Phase 2 – full web accessible on mobile
• Phase 3 – designed-for-mobile web
– Optimize the mobile user experience
• Phase 4 – client-side mashups
– telephony, address book, location, camera…
• Phase 5 – apparent persistence
– Despite battery limitations; widgets; push; …
Challenges
•
•
•
•
Handset diversity
Pace of change
Battery life – “chatty” apps drain power
Application concurrency
– Manage flow of events across native, browser
and helper apps
• Persistent user experience across multiple
applications
Expectations are clear
Today
Tomorrow
Mobile
Telephony
Mobile
Telephony
Phone
Mobile
Web
Browser
Browser
Camera
Camera
Media Player
Media Player
Phone
Mobile
Web
2.0
Biggest Take-Away
The initiative has passed to
application developers
Dumb Pipes or
New Service Opportunities?
How operators can profit while
providing open mobile access
to the Internet
Advertising won’t cover lost voice $
Source: Telco 2.0 Manifesto, STL Partners Ltd.
Two-Sided Markets
• eBay connects sellers and buyers
• Nightclubs: women get in free
• Media
– Newspapers – low prices for subscribers
facilitates sales of advertising
– Broadcast TV – free attracts viewers
facilitating sales of advertising
• Akamai caching benefits
– Free to ISPs; Paid for by content providers
800 numbers
• The original telco 2-sided play
• Bell system provided retail phone service
to essentially all US consumers
• Offered “800 service” to businesses,
helping them connect with their customers
and prospects
Billing Service
• Most operators cautious about partnering
– Fear of “dumb pipe”  slow roll out of new services
• DoCoMo i-mode 2G data service launched 1999
– Small screens, slow (9.6 kbps) data rate
• But i-mode business model was wide open
– Free development software; No access restrictions
– DoCoMo’s “bill-on-behalf” with 9% commissions
• i-mode big success in first 24 months
– 55,000 applications, 30M subscribers !
DoCoMo i-mode: 2-sided business model
• Subscribers pay for data access (flat rate monthly bundles)
• Application providers pay DoCoMo for billing services
DoCoMo’s i-mode
• Open to any application developer
• Optional billing for a 9% commission
Results:
• Over 100K new applications in 3+ years
• Over 15K applications use billing service
• DoCoMo has highest data revenue per
user, in the world
Operator Assets
•
•
•
•
Brand, PSTN numbers
Location (motion, context, …)
Fine-grained billing systems
User data
– Name, address, age, devices, …
• Rich presence
• Customer relationships
Customers:
Revenue Side 2
Customers:
Revenue Side 1
Developers
Retailers
Government
Brand
Advertisers
B2B VAS
$
Telco
Platform
$
Distribution
Content Owners
Telco – Retail
Source: Simon Torrance
© 2008, STL Partners Ltd/Telco 2.0TM Initiative
Millions of
Customers
Thousands of
Segments
Rich mobile applications
coming
Opportunities on all fronts
Business models will change,
significantly
Agenda
10:30 – 12:00 noon
Our G-enealogy – History and Evolution of
Mobile Radio
Lunch
1:00 – 2:00
2:00 – 2:45
The IEEE’s Wireless Ethernet Keeps Going
and Growing
4G Tutorial: Vive la Différence?
Break
3:00 – 3:45
Mobile Broadband - New Applications and
New Business Models
 Break
4:00 – 4:45
Tutorial: White Spaces and Beyond
www.octoscope.com
Brough Turner, Chief Strategy Officer, Dialogic
[email protected]
Blog: http://blogs.nmss.com/communications/
[email protected] Skype: brough
Additional
Reference
Material
Mobile Standard Organizations
Mobile
Operators
ITU Members
ITU
IS-95), IS-41, IS2000, IS-835
GSM, W-CDMA,
UMTS
Third Generation
Patnership Project
(3GPP)
CWTS
(China)
Third Generation
Partnership Project II
(3GPP2)
ARIB
(Japan)
TTC
(Japan)
TTA
(Korea)
ETSI
(Europe)
T1
(USA)
TIA
(USA)
Partnership Projects and Forums
• ITU IMT-2000: http://www.itu.int/home/imt.html
• Mobile Partnership Projects
– 3GPP : http://www.3gpp.org
– 3GPP2 : http://www.3gpp2.org
• Mobile marketing alliances and forums
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
GSM Association: http://www.gsmworld.com/index.shtml
UMTS Forum : http://www.umts-forum.org
CDMA Development Group: http://www.cdg.org/index.asp
Next Generation Mobile Networks Alliance: http://www.ngmn.org/
Global Mobile Suppliers Association: http://www.gsacom.com
CTIA: http://www.ctia.org/
3G Americas: http://www.uwcc.org
Mobile Standards Organizations
•
European Technical Standard Institute (Europe):
– http://www.etsi.org
•
Telecommunication Industry Association (USA):
– http://www.tiaonline.org
•
Alliance for Telecommunications Industry Solutions (USA)
(formerly Committee T1):
– http://www.t1.org & http://www.atis.org/
•
China Communications Standards Association (China):
– http://www.cwts.org
•
The Association of Radio Industries and Businesses (Japan):
– http://www.arib.or.jp/english/index.html
•
The Telecommunication Technology Committee (Japan):
– http://www.ttc.or.jp/e/index.html
•
The Telecommunication Technology Association (Korea):
– http://www.tta.or.kr/english/e_index.htm
Other Industry Consortia
• OMA, Open Mobile Alliance:
http://www.openmobilealliance.org/
– Consolidates Open Mobile Architecture, WAP Forum, Location
Interoperability Forum, SyncML, MMS Interoperability Group,
Wireless Village
• Lists of wireless organizations compiled by others:
– http://www.wipconnector.com/resources.php
– http://focus.ti.com/general/docs/wtbu/wtbugencontent.tsp?templa
teId=6123&contentId=4602
– http://www.wlana.org/pdf/wlan_standards_orgs.pdf
Wireless MAN, LAN and PAN Links
• WirelessMAN – Broadband Access (WiMAX)
– IEEE 802.16: http://www.ieee802.org/16/
– WiMAX Forum: http://www.wimaxforum.org/home/
• Wireless LAN (WiFi)
– IEEE 802.11: http://www.ieee802.org/11/
– WiFi Alliance: http://www.wi-fi.org/
– Wireless LAN Association: http://www.wlana.org/
• Wireless WPAN (Bluetooth)
– IEEE 802.15: http://www.ieee802.org/15/
– Bluetooth SIG: https://www.bluetooth.org/
and http://www.bluetooth.com/
Market & Subscriber Statistics
Free:
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators
–
–
–
–
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators_of_Europe
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators_of_the_Americas
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators_of_the_Asia_Pacific_region
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators_of_the_Middle_East_and_Africa
• http://www.gsmworld.com/roaming/gsminfo/index.shtml
• http://www.cdg.org/worldwide/cdma_world_subscriber.asp
• http://www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4
Nominal cost:
• http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/publications/world/world.html
www.octoscope.com
Brough Turner, Chief Strategy Officer, Dialogic
[email protected]
Blog: http://blogs.nmss.com/communications/
[email protected] Skype: brough