Wireless Tutorial Part 3 Mobile Broadband New Applications and New Business Models Fanny Mlinarsky octoScope Brough Turner Dialogic Agenda 10:30 – 12:00 noon Our G-enealogy – History and Evolution of Mobile Radio Lunch 1:00 – 2:00 2:00 – 2:45 The IEEE’s Wireless Ethernet Keeps Going and Growing 4G Tutorial: Vive la Différence? Break 3:00 – 3:45 Mobile Broadband - New Applications and New Business Models Break 4:00 – 4:45 Tutorial: White Spaces and Beyond The Internet is the killer platform • Mobile Internet access driving 3G data usage • Future business models an open question – Walled garden ? – Advertising ? – Other 2-sided business models ? Leading Apps don’t depend on 3G • Voice ― still the largest revenue source – Bar none! • SMS ― 2nd largest mobile revenue source – Voice SMS, Picture mail & Video mail coming on strong Content ! Mobile TV Mobile social networking Mobile Content • More music sold on-line than off-line in both China and Korea • Ringback tones – Created by SK Telecom in Korea in 2002; 30% adoption in just 9 months • Ringback tones today – Korea: ~55% adoption – China: ~50% adoption Any G, 1, 2, 3 or Fixed Japanese Music Revenues Source: Infinity Venture Partners Mobile TV 70% of new handsets in Japan are Mobile TV enabled Only Japan and Korea have multi-million Mobile TV subscriber bases Broadcast services independent of 3G 2.5G Mobile Social Networking Mobile launch: 2000 2004 2006 2007 6M 10 M 3M ~$100M ~$35M ($50M) Mobile users: 50 M Profit (USD): $225M Source: Benjamin Joffe, Plus Eight Star Ltd. “3G” Services 3G-324M Video telephony Limited adoption Location-based services Bypassed ! Push-to-Talk (VoIP w/o QoS) Limited adoption Rich presence (instant messaging) No traction Fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) Limited adoption IP Multimedia Services (w/ QoS) • Video sharing (conversational video over IP) Limited adoption Converged “All IP” networks – the Vision Still waiting … Mobile operators miss the boat Location-based services (LBS) • Required in US for 911 services • Fully implemented (after multiple delays) • Not made attractive for 3rd parties Result: • All US location-based services based on alternate location approaches – GPS, Cell ID, Navizon, Skyhook Mobile operators slow the boat Billing Services • Mobile operators have efficient billing systems & own the customer relationship • DoCoMo showed (I-Mode in 1999) the enormous potential of affordable billing services • Yet billing still offered only via premium rate #s Result: • 3rd party content is paid for via 3rd party billing systems or (multiple) premium rate SMS(s) Mobile Broadband Access US prospects for “over the top” access to the open Internet Breaking Oligopolies • Four or more viable competitors is what it takes; more than four and it can be rapid – Many examples in mobile voice telephony from around the world • 2008: Three established US 3G operators – AT&T Mobility, Verizon Wireless & Sprint PCS – Flat rate data plans expensive, but appearing Additional US 3G Competition • T-Mobile USA (well financed) – Paid $4.2B for AWS spectrum in 2006 and committed additional $2.7B for initial rollout – Currently spending almost $1B per quarter, with 3G at 1/3rd of cell sites as of 3Q08 • Clearwire (partially financed) – WiMAX on Clearwire and Sprint spectrum Expect affordable flat rate mobile broadband in the US in 2010 Subscribers & Applications • Historically, only applications pre-installed on handsets had any traction – “On-deck” applications and content offers • Apple iPhone application store is on-deck – Provides access to 100K+ applications • Andriod store, Adobe, Nokia initiatives, … Application stores are the new “deck” Handset diversity Remaining obstacle to widespread deployment of 3rd party applications IMS inter-operability bad enough Today’s handsets more diverse • Browsers – Openwave, Opera, Safari, … – Using: WebKit, Netfront, Presto, … • Runtime environments as several levels – Adobe AIR, .Net/Silverlight, Brew, JavaME, … • Operating systems – Symbian, WinMobile, Android, OpenMoko… • Hardware capabilities – CPUs, supported codecs, screen size, … Mobile Software Frameworks Source: Andrea Constantinou, ©2008 VisionMobile Research Important trends • App stores! – Easier distribution; Easier discovery • More and more smart phones • Richer browser capabilities – Approaching PC browser functionality • New access to device capabilities – User data (contacts, logs, …), events (incoming calls) and core functionality Uniquely Mobile Internet • Phase 1 – cut down web, e.g. WAP • Phase 2 – full web accessible on mobile • Phase 3 – designed-for-mobile web – Optimize the mobile user experience • Phase 4 – client-side mashups – telephony, address book, location, camera… • Phase 5 – apparent persistence – Despite battery limitations; widgets; push; … Challenges • • • • Handset diversity Pace of change Battery life – “chatty” apps drain power Application concurrency – Manage flow of events across native, browser and helper apps • Persistent user experience across multiple applications Expectations are clear Today Tomorrow Mobile Telephony Mobile Telephony Phone Mobile Web Browser Browser Camera Camera Media Player Media Player Phone Mobile Web 2.0 Biggest Take-Away The initiative has passed to application developers Dumb Pipes or New Service Opportunities? How operators can profit while providing open mobile access to the Internet Advertising won’t cover lost voice $ Source: Telco 2.0 Manifesto, STL Partners Ltd. Two-Sided Markets • eBay connects sellers and buyers • Nightclubs: women get in free • Media – Newspapers – low prices for subscribers facilitates sales of advertising – Broadcast TV – free attracts viewers facilitating sales of advertising • Akamai caching benefits – Free to ISPs; Paid for by content providers 800 numbers • The original telco 2-sided play • Bell system provided retail phone service to essentially all US consumers • Offered “800 service” to businesses, helping them connect with their customers and prospects Billing Service • Most operators cautious about partnering – Fear of “dumb pipe” slow roll out of new services • DoCoMo i-mode 2G data service launched 1999 – Small screens, slow (9.6 kbps) data rate • But i-mode business model was wide open – Free development software; No access restrictions – DoCoMo’s “bill-on-behalf” with 9% commissions • i-mode big success in first 24 months – 55,000 applications, 30M subscribers ! DoCoMo i-mode: 2-sided business model • Subscribers pay for data access (flat rate monthly bundles) • Application providers pay DoCoMo for billing services DoCoMo’s i-mode • Open to any application developer • Optional billing for a 9% commission Results: • Over 100K new applications in 3+ years • Over 15K applications use billing service • DoCoMo has highest data revenue per user, in the world Operator Assets • • • • Brand, PSTN numbers Location (motion, context, …) Fine-grained billing systems User data – Name, address, age, devices, … • Rich presence • Customer relationships Customers: Revenue Side 2 Customers: Revenue Side 1 Developers Retailers Government Brand Advertisers B2B VAS $ Telco Platform $ Distribution Content Owners Telco – Retail Source: Simon Torrance © 2008, STL Partners Ltd/Telco 2.0TM Initiative Millions of Customers Thousands of Segments Rich mobile applications coming Opportunities on all fronts Business models will change, significantly Agenda 10:30 – 12:00 noon Our G-enealogy – History and Evolution of Mobile Radio Lunch 1:00 – 2:00 2:00 – 2:45 The IEEE’s Wireless Ethernet Keeps Going and Growing 4G Tutorial: Vive la Différence? Break 3:00 – 3:45 Mobile Broadband - New Applications and New Business Models Break 4:00 – 4:45 Tutorial: White Spaces and Beyond www.octoscope.com Brough Turner, Chief Strategy Officer, Dialogic [email protected] Blog: http://blogs.nmss.com/communications/ [email protected] Skype: brough Additional Reference Material Mobile Standard Organizations Mobile Operators ITU Members ITU IS-95), IS-41, IS2000, IS-835 GSM, W-CDMA, UMTS Third Generation Patnership Project (3GPP) CWTS (China) Third Generation Partnership Project II (3GPP2) ARIB (Japan) TTC (Japan) TTA (Korea) ETSI (Europe) T1 (USA) TIA (USA) Partnership Projects and Forums • ITU IMT-2000: http://www.itu.int/home/imt.html • Mobile Partnership Projects – 3GPP : http://www.3gpp.org – 3GPP2 : http://www.3gpp2.org • Mobile marketing alliances and forums – – – – – – – GSM Association: http://www.gsmworld.com/index.shtml UMTS Forum : http://www.umts-forum.org CDMA Development Group: http://www.cdg.org/index.asp Next Generation Mobile Networks Alliance: http://www.ngmn.org/ Global Mobile Suppliers Association: http://www.gsacom.com CTIA: http://www.ctia.org/ 3G Americas: http://www.uwcc.org Mobile Standards Organizations • European Technical Standard Institute (Europe): – http://www.etsi.org • Telecommunication Industry Association (USA): – http://www.tiaonline.org • Alliance for Telecommunications Industry Solutions (USA) (formerly Committee T1): – http://www.t1.org & http://www.atis.org/ • China Communications Standards Association (China): – http://www.cwts.org • The Association of Radio Industries and Businesses (Japan): – http://www.arib.or.jp/english/index.html • The Telecommunication Technology Committee (Japan): – http://www.ttc.or.jp/e/index.html • The Telecommunication Technology Association (Korea): – http://www.tta.or.kr/english/e_index.htm Other Industry Consortia • OMA, Open Mobile Alliance: http://www.openmobilealliance.org/ – Consolidates Open Mobile Architecture, WAP Forum, Location Interoperability Forum, SyncML, MMS Interoperability Group, Wireless Village • Lists of wireless organizations compiled by others: – http://www.wipconnector.com/resources.php – http://focus.ti.com/general/docs/wtbu/wtbugencontent.tsp?templa teId=6123&contentId=4602 – http://www.wlana.org/pdf/wlan_standards_orgs.pdf Wireless MAN, LAN and PAN Links • WirelessMAN – Broadband Access (WiMAX) – IEEE 802.16: http://www.ieee802.org/16/ – WiMAX Forum: http://www.wimaxforum.org/home/ • Wireless LAN (WiFi) – IEEE 802.11: http://www.ieee802.org/11/ – WiFi Alliance: http://www.wi-fi.org/ – Wireless LAN Association: http://www.wlana.org/ • Wireless WPAN (Bluetooth) – IEEE 802.15: http://www.ieee802.org/15/ – Bluetooth SIG: https://www.bluetooth.org/ and http://www.bluetooth.com/ Market & Subscriber Statistics Free: • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators – – – – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators_of_Europe http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators_of_the_Americas http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators_of_the_Asia_Pacific_region http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators_of_the_Middle_East_and_Africa • http://www.gsmworld.com/roaming/gsminfo/index.shtml • http://www.cdg.org/worldwide/cdma_world_subscriber.asp • http://www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4 Nominal cost: • http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/publications/world/world.html www.octoscope.com Brough Turner, Chief Strategy Officer, Dialogic [email protected] Blog: http://blogs.nmss.com/communications/ [email protected] Skype: brough
1/--страниц