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Ifo Institute for Economic Research
Comparisons
of
Downswing Phases
Dr. Gernot Nerb, Ifo Institute
November 2007
OECD-EU Workshop
Ifo Institute for Economic Research
Which scenario is most likely
in 2007/ 2008
?
Ifo Institute for Economic Research
Soft landing
as in 1995/1996
or 1998/1999
Ifo Institute for Economic Research
… or
hard landing
as in 1973/1974/1975
or 1990/1991/1992/1993
?
Ifo Institute for Economic Research
Ifo Business Cycle Clock - Trade and Industry
1)
Assessment of current business situation vs. business expectations
30
Expectations for the next 6 months
Upswing
Boom
20
Jan.
2006
Jan. 2004
10
Jan. 2000
Jan. 2007
Jan. 2005
0
October 2007
Jan.
1998
Jan. 2001
-10
Jan.
2003
Jan. 1999
-20
Jan. 2002
Downswing
Recession
-30
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Current business situation
1) Manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. Balances, seasonally adjusted data.
Source: Ifo Business Survey.
30
Ifo Institute for Economic Research
Ifo Business Cycle Clock - Manufacturing Industry1)
Assessment of current business situation vs. business expectations
Expectations for the next 6 months
30
Upswing
Jan. 2004
20
Jan. 2000
Jan. 2007
Jan.
1998
10
Jan.
2005
0
-10
Boom
Jan. 2006
Jan.
2003
October 2007
Jan. 2001
Jan. 1999
Jan. 2002
-20
WTC
Attack
Sept. 11
-30
Downswing
Recession
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Current business situation
1) Manufacturing industry including food, beverages and tobacco. Balances, seasonally adjusted.
Sources: Ifo Business Survey, Germany.
50
Ifo Institute for Economic Research
Ifo Institute for Economic Research
Ifo Institute for Economic Research
Ifo Institute for Economic Research
Ifo Institute for Economic Research
Ifo Institute for Economic Research
Good chances for a
soft landing
Thank you
1/--страниц
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